Index
Page numbers followed by f or t refer to figures or tables.
Abbas, Mahmoud, 160
Abdel-Hadi, Ibrahim, 158
Acheson, Dean, 9, 15, 168, 205
Afghanistan, invasion of, 5
Albert, Charles (King of Sardinia), 57
Alexander II (Emperor of Russia), 10
Alliance variable, modeling wartime negotiations, 79, 84
Allied powers. See also World War I; individual states by name
Crimean War (1853–56), 10
Al-Musawar (magazine), 158
Anglo-Egyptian Treaty (1936), 158
Angola, War over (1975–76), 55
Aouzou Strip, War over (1986–87), 40, 66
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 35–36
advantages, Arab state, 146–148
battlefield developments, 142–143
Bernadotte, Folke, 144–145, 149–150, 152, 153–155
establishment of Israel, 141, 143–144
exhaustion of forces during, 147, 148–149
external pressures, 146, 150, 152, 154, 158, 159–161
higher ground advantage, 146, 156
insincere negotiations, 142, 146, 150–152, 154, 157–158
latent external diplomatic pressures, 142–143
Mandatory Palestine and, 141, 144, 155, 157
map, 145f
“Palestinian Question,” 143–144
public opinion, perceptions, and misconceptions during, 150, 152, 154, 158
review of wartime diplomacy, 157–159
ripeness theory and, 159
shuttle diplomacy during, 149–150, 154
side effects from diplomacy, 143, 146
sincerity in negotiations, 142–143, 158
stalling for time, 142, 146, 150–152, 154, 156, 157
third-party pressures and, 159–161
United Kingdom involvement, 142–144
United Nations mediation, 141–142
weapons supply, 151
World War I, effects of, 143
World War II veterans involved, 151
Arab League, 144–146, 149, 152–154, 158
Arab states. See Arab-Israeli War (1948–49); specific countries by name
Archival data, 163, 179–190. See also Computational analysis of archival data of Korean War
Argentina
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 129, 137
Falklands War (1982), 2–3, 5, 13, 40, 55–57, 89, 199
La Plata War (1851–52), 5
López or Paraguayan War (1864–70), 27
Arms reductions negotiations, 34
The Art of War (Sun-Tzu), 119
Assam War (1962), 38
Assumptions in current knowledge of war, 6–9
Audience cost theory, 30
Austria. See also War of the Roman Republic (1849)
Austro-Sardinian War (1848), 57, 58f
Second Schleswig-Holstein War (1864), 55
Auxiliary actors. See External influences; Third parties
Average trajectory of negotiations, 60f
Avoidance of continued fighting, benefits of persistence in negotiations, 31–33
Avoidance of negotiations, 26–31, 40. See also Insincerity in negotiations
Bad faith. See Insincerity in negotiations
Baek Son-yeop, 171
“Bag of words” approach, 184
Baker, James, 36
Balanced random forest model, 186, 187
Balas, Alexandru, 74
Balfour Declaration (1917), 143
Bargaining model of war, 7–8, 14, 25, 33, 37, 116, 139–140, 201–202, 203
comparison to negotiations, 23
modeling wartime negotiations, 110
BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement), 21, 24–26, 33, 202
Battle data, 13–16, 62–70. See also Computational analysis; Statistical analysis
casualties as measurement of, 62–63
daily-level measures of battlefield outcomes, 68–70, 70f
defining and justifying battles, 62–63
distribution of battle victories, 67t
guerrilla warfare and, 67
measures of battlefield activity, 68–70, 70f
World War II, 65
Battlefield information, 21
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 142–143
combination with latent external pressures, 44–47, 44f
fort, definition of, 42
insincerity in negotiations, effects of, 36–38
Korean War (1950–53), impact on diplomatic behavior, 175–176, 178–179
mobilization and remobilization, 37
modeling wartime negotiations, 94
predicted negotiation behavior, 44f
rationale for negotiation, 42–44
sincerity of negotiations, choices regarding, 43–47
Battlefield operations influenced by negotiation, 16–17, 112–140
active battle trend, 114
binary variables, 114
changing battlefield trends, 116–121
coefficient plots, 118f
concurrent negotiation, 117
contemporaneous trends, 113, 114
count variable, 113
expectations and beliefs, 119–120
external negotiations, 114, 116
fading effects of negotiation, 120–121
first-mover advantage in war, 117–119
insincere negotiations, 112, 116
internal negotiations, 114, 116
Poisson model, 113
postnegotiation window, 116–117, 118f, 120–121
prewar expectations and beliefs, 119–120
quantitative analysis, 113–138
recent battles, number of, 114
recent imbalance, 113
sincerity of negotiations, 114, 116
third-party pressures, 114
time trend variable, 117
Bayesian information criterion (BIC), 75
Belaúnde Terry, Fernando, 40
Benefits of wartime negotiation, 13, 21, 24
persistence in negotiations, 31–38
Ben-Gurion, David, 18, 141, 144, 147–148, 152–159
Bernadotte, Folke, 144–145, 149–150, 152, 153–155
Best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA), 21, 24–26, 33, 202
Between Peace and War (Lebow), 35
Biden, Joseph, 207
Binary negotiation variable, modeling wartime negotiations, 87f
Bivariate logistic regressions, statistical validation, 75–76
Blainey, Geoffrey, 43
Bluffing, 6
Bo, Mai Van, 54
Bohlen, Charles, 178
Bosnian War (1992–95), 15, 210
Bradley, Omar, 178
La Plata War (1851–52), 5
Britain. See United Kingdom
British Mandate in Palestine, 143, 144, 159
Bush, George H. W., 36
Byzantine Empire, 96
Callaghan, James, 103, 105, 106
Canada, Korean War involvement, 168
Capabilities, modeling wartime negotiations, 78
Cardenas, Ernesto, 132
Carnevale, Peter, 9
Case studies
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 141–161
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 128–138, 139
Greco-Turkish War (1897), 95–100, 110
Turco-Cypriot War (1974), 100–109, 110
War of the Roman Republic (1849), 122–128, 139
Casualties
computational analysis, 181–183, 182f, 190, 194
Korean War (1950–53), 167, 181–183, 182f, 190, 194
as measurement of battle data, 62–63
Ceasefires, 113–114, 116, 211–212
United Nations ceasefire committee, 168
War of the Roman Republic (1849), 125
Cenepa River. See Cenepa Valley War (1995)
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 18, 128–138, 139
externally motivated negotiations, 138
first-mover advantage, 135
higher ground advantage, 130
map, 131f
Paquisha War (1981), 130
Central Intelligence Agency assessment, 196
Central powers. See World War I
Chad, Libyan-Chad War (1986–87), 40, 66
Charles Albert (King of Piedmont), 122
Chile, Cenepa Valley War (1995), 129, 137
China. See People’s Republic of China (PRC)
Choosing to negotiate, 38–47. See also Insincerity in negotiations; Sincerity in negotiations
CINC (Composite Index of National Capability) ratio, 78, 84, 119, 120, 222n. 23
Civil war, negotiations in, 205–206
Clark, Mark W., 196
Clausewitz, Carl von, 20, 62, 117–118
Clerides, Glafcos, 105
Climate change, negotiations regarding, 208–209
Clinton, Hillary, 160
Coefficient plots
battlefield, influenced by negotiation, 118f
logistic regressions, archival data of Korean War, 192f, 195f
modeling wartime negotiations, 81f, 82f, 91f, 93f
multistate models of negotiation, 81f, 82f, 91f
Poisson models of active battles, 115f
survival model of third-party diplomatic interventions, 93f
Cold War
arms reductions negotiations, 34
intrastate conflicts since, 205
Collection of data. See Statistical analysis
Collective bargaining negotiations, 34
Columbia, 205
Commencement of actions, 65–66
Commitment problems, avoidance of negotiations and, 27–28
Communications
avoidance of negotiations, 26–31, 40. See also Insincerity in negotiations
defining negotiations, 55
Communist states. See also Korean War (1950–53); specific states by name
issues in negotiating with, 204–205
Completed battles, modeling wartime negotiations, 80
Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) ratio, 78, 84, 119, 120, 222n. 23
Computational analysis
generally. See Statistical analysis
of archival data. See Computational analysis of archival data of Korean War
Computational analysis of archival data of Korean War, 163, 179–190
“bag of words” approach, 184
balanced random forest model, 186, 187
casualties, 181–183, 182f, 190, 194
coefficient plots of logistic regressions, 192f, 195f
Communist States reports, 182–183
cross-validation techniques, 187
daily operations reports, 179–182
delegations’ degrees of sincerity, 190, 193–194
design of statistical tests, 189–190
distribution of sincere negotiation behavior, 187t
examples of entries from UNC reports, 180t
ground losses, 194
guerrilla warfare, 182
hostility and obstinacy, 184
length of reports, 190
logistic regression model, 191, 192f, 193
measuring battlefield activity, 179–183
measuring negotiation behavior, 183–189
misclassifications, 189
missing in action (MIA) numbers, 181–182
negotiation behavior, 187t, 188f
observations about sincerity, 188
out-of-sample data, 186
overall conclusion, 194
political considerations, 190
predicted sincerity of negotiation, 193t
proof of hypotheses, 194
recent casualties, 190
recent costs, 191
recent imbalance, 190, 191, 193
ripeness theory, 196
separate analysis of delegations’ statements, 193–194
side effects, 196
sincerity or insincerity of negotiations, 183–184, 185–190
statistical success of negotiations, 197
supervised learning method, 163, 186, 187, 190
terminology used, 180, 180t, 185
United Nations Command reports, 180–182, 180t, 181f
validation of data measurements, 187–189
variables, 190
wounded in action (WIA) numbers, 181–182
Condor Mountains. See Cenepa Valley War (1995)
Conference of the Parties (COP), 208
Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), 34
Congress of Berlin, 1878, 95, 96, 101
Congress of Vienna, 1814 and 1815, 89
Constantine, Crown Prince of Greece, 97, 98
Contiguity variable, modeling wartime negotiations, 78
Copenhagen Accord, 208
Cordillera del Cóndor. See Cenepa Valley War (1995)
Correlates of War (COW) Project, 220 n.1
Direct Contiguity dataset, 78
Inter-State War dataset, 63, 221 n.1
State System Membership dataset, 79, 89–90
Costly conversations thesis (CCT), 9, 52, 216n. 28
Costs of wartime negotiation, 11, 21, 24, 200, 203, 211
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 157, 159
assumptions in current knowledge of war, 8–9
avoidance issues, 27
domestic political costs, 30–31
Korean War (1950–53), 194, 196
public perceptions of negotiations, 27–31
Crete
Greco-Turkish War (1897), 17, 65, 95–100, 110
map, 95f
Crimean War (1853–56), 10
Crisis diplomacy, 20
Cross-validation techniques, 187
Cuba, avoidance of negotiations, 27–28
Cultural influence on diplomatic styles, 204–205
Cumulative outcomes, modeling wartime negotiations, 79–80
Cyprus. See also Turco-Cypriot War (1974)
map, 100f
1960 Treaty of Guarantee, 101
Republic of Cyprus, 101
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), 101–102
Data. See Statistical analysis
Dates and duration. See also Timing
Deadlock, 50
Declaration of Itamaraty, 133
Defender
Defining negotiations, 9, 22–26
statistical analysis and, 55–56
Deflection of pressure and blame, insincerity in negotiations, 35–36
Delay tactics. See Insincerity in negotiations
Deliyiannis, Theodoros, 99
Democratic initiators, modeling wartime negotiations, 79
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). See North Korea
Denmark, Second Schleswig-Holstein War (1864), 55
Design
computational analysis of archival data of Korean War, 189–190
modeling wartime negotiations, 78–80
Détente, Cold War, 34
Diehl, Paul, 74
Dilatory negotiation. See Insincerity in negotiations
Diplomacy. See also External influences
comparison to negotiations, 23
definition of, 23
Diplomatic Exchange dataset, 79
Direct negotiations, 22
DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). See North Korea
Ecevit, Bülent, 102, 103, 104, 106, 108, 109
Ecuador. See Cenepa Valley War (1995)
Egypt. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
Madrid Conference, 36
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 175, 190, 191, 193
El Salvador, Third Central American War (1906), 57
Emmanuel, Victor, 57
enosis (“union” in Greek), 101
EOKA (National Organization of Cypriot Fighters), 101
EOKA B, 101
Ethiopia, 212
Exploitation of diplomacy, 204
External influences. See also Latent external pressures; Perceptions; Third parties
computational analysis of archival data, 190
deflection of pressure and blame, 35–36
Korean War (1950–53), 168
predicted negotiation behavior, conditional on environment, 44f
External negotiations. See also Shuttle diplomacy; Third parties
distinction from internal negotiations, 61
frequency and results of, 60t
Falklands War (1982), 2–3, 5, 13, 40, 55–57, 89, 199
Farouk (King of Egypt), 158
Finland, Russo-Finnish War (1939–40), 55
First Arab-Israeli War. See Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
First Kashmir War (1947–49), 75
First Peloponnesian War, 46
Fixed international institutions, 74–75. See also United Nations
Foreign Affairs (journal), 209–210
“Forgotten War.” See Korean War (1950–53)
“Forts”
France
War of the Roman Republic (1849), 123–124, 139
World War I, 69
Frequency of wartime negotiations, 44f, 48
across war-days, 60t
civil wars, 206
modeling wartime negotiations, 78
Galtieri, Leopoldo, 40
Gaviria Trujillo, César, 132
Geneva Convention (1949), 74, 174
Germany, 65
Iranian nuclear ambitions and, 20
public perceptions of negotiations, 30–31
third party involvement in Greco-Turkish War (1897), 95–100
World War I, 69
Getting to Yes (Fisher and Ury), 9, 24
“Give War a Chance” (Luttwak), 209–210
Gneisenau, August von, 37
Goertz, Gary, 74
Great Powers. See also individual countries by name
third party involvement in Greco-Turkish War (1897), 95–100
Greco-Turkish War (1897), 17, 65, 95–100, 95f, 110
Greece, 46. See also Turco-Cypriot War (1974)
1960 Treaty of Guarantee, 101
Greco-Turkish War (1897), 65, 95–100, 110
Grivas, George, 102
Ground losses. See also Casualties; Costs of wartime negotiation
computational analysis of archival data, 194
Guatemala, Third Central American War (1906), 57
battle data and, 67
computational analysis of archival data of Korean War, 182
Guide to Diplomatic Practice (Satow), 23
Gullion, Edmund, 54
Hague Convention (1899), 74
Hague Conventions (1949), 74
Harrison, William, Jr., 198
Hazard models of war termination, 85, 87f
Higher elevation advantage
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 146, 156
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 130
War of the Roman Republic (1849), 124–126, 139
Hiroshima, bombing of, 74
Holsti, Kalevi J., 78
Honduras, Third Central American War (1906), 57
Hostage negotiations, 34
Howard, Lisa (ABC News correspondent), 27
How Communists Negotiate (Joy), 204
How Nations Negotiate (Iklé), 22, 55
Humanitarian peace efforts, 212–213
Hurting stalemate, 50
Hussein (King of Jordan), 28
Hypotheses, 48, 194. See also Implications for negotiation
Ibn Saud (King of Saudi Arabia), 113–114
ICM (International Conflict Management) dataset, 92
Idi Amin, 59
Iklé, Fred C., 22, 33, 40, 42, 55
Imbalance. See Overall imbalance; Recent imbalance in fighting
Implications for negotiation, 48–51. See also Battlefield operations influenced by negotiation
ripeness theory compared, 50–51
India
Assam War (1962), 38
First Kashmir War (1947–49), 64, 75
Kargil War (1999), 5
Insincerity in negotiations, 11–12, 200, 204. See also Battlefield information; War of the Roman Republic (1849)
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 142, 146, 150–152, 154, 157–158
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 135–136, 138
civil wars, 206
combination of latent external pressures with battlefield information, 44–47, 44f
computational analysis of archival data, 183–190
definition of insincere negotiations, 21, 33
deflection of pressure and blame, 35–36
future fighting, effects on, 33–38
higher latent pressures and, 90
Korean War (1950–53), 163, 164, 178, 183–184, 185–190
latent external pressures, 39–42
mobilization and planning, 36–38
predicted negotiation behavior, 44f
rejection of insincere negotiations, 199
reorganization on battlefield, 36–38
side effects of stalling, 34–38
Turco-Cypriot War (1974), 106–109
Internal negotiations
defined, 56
distinction from external negotiations, 61
frequency and results of, 60t
modeling wartime negotiations, 85, 87f, 88
International Conflict Management (ICM) dataset, 92
International relations, progress in, 206–209
Ioannidis, Dimitrios, 102
nuclear ambitions, limitations on, 20
nuclear diplomacy, 207
Syrian civil war, mediation of peace talks, 41
Iraq. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
invasion of, 5
Israel. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
establishment of, 141, 143–144
League of Nations and, 143
Madrid Conference, 36
Mandatory Palestine, 141, 144, 155, 157
Israel Defense Forces (IDF), 147, 151, 153, 156, 158. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
Issue salience, modeling wartime negotiations, 78, 83–84, 92
Italy. See War of the Roman Republic (1849)
Janiculum (hill in Rome). See War of the Roman Republic (1849)
Japan. See also Korean War (1950–53)
Russo-Japanese War (1904–5), 1–2, 3, 5, 12, 45, 57
Second Sino-Japanese War (1931–33), 10
Jaques, Tony, 63
Jerusalem, 144, 145f, 147, 148, 153–155
Johnson, Nelson T., 10
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), 20, 207
Jordan. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
avoidance of negotiations, 28
Madrid Conference, 36
Kaplow, Jeffrey, 205
Kargil War (1999), 5
Kennan, George, 168
Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali, 207
Khrushchev, Nikita, 28
Kim Il-sung, 166
Kim Jong-un, 208
Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, 122
Kissinger, Henry, 103, 105, 106, 107
Kollek, Teddy, 148
Kollontai, Alexandra, 55
Komura (Japanese diplomat), 1
Korean War (1950–53), 18, 46, 162–197, 198
archival data, 163, 179–190. See also Computational analysis of archival data of Korean War
avoidance of negotiations, 27
battlefield information, impact on diplomatic behavior, 175–176, 178–179
casualties, 167
ceasefires, 168
Communist diplomacy during, 204–205
delegate’s diplomacy experience, 203
external pressure, 168
insincerity of negotiations, 163, 164, 178
latent external pressure, 163
map, 165f
mutually hurting stalemate, 50
political vs. military attitudes, 171–172, 176–178
prisoners of war (POWs), 174–175, 182f, 183, 187–188, 190, 194
propaganda, 163, 164, 169, 171, 174, 176–177
public perceptions and opinions, 46, 163, 167–169, 174, 176–178, 199, 200
recesses during negotiation, 56, 59
reports by Communist States, 182–183
reports by UNC, 180–182, 180t, 181f
second and third years, 170–175
sincerity of negotiations, 163, 172
stalling tactics, 178
Lall, Arthur S., 205
Lampson, Miles, 10
La Plata War (1851–52), 5
Latent external pressures, 12, 16, 39–42, 61, 200. See also Perceptions; Propaganda and news media; Third parties
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 142–143, 146, 150, 152, 154, 158–161
combination with battlefield information, 44–47, 44f
defined, 39
Israel, establishment of, 141
Korean War (1950–53), 163
modeling wartime negotiations, 78, 80, 83, 85–94, 87f, 109–111
negotiation data and, 61
1945 as turning point in third-party interventions, 72–76, 141
Turco-Cypriot War (1974), 103–109
Lawler, Edward, 9
Lebanon. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
Madrid Conference, 36
Lebow, Richard Ned, 35
Lesseps, Ferdinand, 125–126, 127
Leverage in bargaining, reversion outcome, 21, 24–26, 33, 202
Libyan-Chad War (1986–87), 40, 66
Logic of negotiating, 38–47. See also Insincerity in negotiations; Sincerity in negotiations
Logistic regression model, 191, 192f, 193
London Conference (1864), 55
López or Paraguayan War (1864–70), 27
MacArthur, Douglas, 166, 169–170
Machine learning, 18
Macmillan, Harold, 28
Madrid Conference, 36
Major powers. See also United Nations; specific countries by name
modeling wartime negotiations, 79, 88–90
Makarios III (president of Republic of Cyprus), 101, 102
Mandatory Palestine, 141, 144, 155, 157
Mao Zedong, 38, 167, 168, 169, 171, 174, 178, 194
Maps
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 145f
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 131f
Crete, 95f
Cyprus, 100f
Korean War (1950–53), 165f
Palestine, 145f
Papal States, 123f
María Sanguinetti, Julio, 134
Marne, battles of the, 69
Mastro, Oriana Skylar, 9, 28, 52, 169, 216n. 28
Mazzini, Giuseppe, 122–123, 125
McGaffey, David C., 35
Measurements in computational analysis of archival data
Mediation and mediated negotiations, 22, 211. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49); Third parties
external negotiations, contrasted with, 57
“Megali Idea” (“Great Idea”), 96, 98
Menéndez, Mario, 2
Messaging strategies, Korean War (1950–53), 176–178
Methodology, computational analysis of archival data, 183–184
Mexico, Third Central American War (1906), 57
Middle East. See Arab-Israeli War (1948–49); specific countries by name
Military objectives. See “Forts”
Military Observer Mission, Ecuador Peru (MOMEP), 133–134
Military resources. See Battlefield information
Minimally acceptable offers, 24–25
Minor sources of pressure, modeling wartime negotiations, 88–90
Misclassifications, computational analysis of archival data, 189
Missing in action (MIA) numbers, 181–182
Mobilization and remobilization, insincere negotiations and, 37
Modeling wartime negotiations, 76–94. See also Battlefield operations influenced by negotiation
bargaining models of war, 110
battlefield outcomes, 94
binary negotiation variable, 87f
capabilities, 78
CINC ratio variable, 78, 84, 119, 120, 222n. 23
coefficient plots, 81f, 82f, 91f, 93f
comparison of pre-1945 and post-1945 wars, 80, 83, 84, 85
completed battles, number of, 80
contiguity variable, 78
democratic initiators, 79
determinants of third-party pressure, 90–94
frequency of negotiations, 78
hazard models of war termination, 85, 87f
internal negotiations, 85, 87f, 88
latent external pressure, 78, 80, 83, 85–94, 87f, 109–111
major allies variable, 79
minor sources of pressure, 88–90
multistate models, 76–77, 77f, 78, 83t
nuclear states variable, 79, 84, 92
number of states involved, 79, 92
opponent diplomatic representation, 79
propensity to negotiate over course of wars, 86f
recent imbalance in fighting, 78, 80, 83, 94, 110
selection effect, 92
“terminal” state, 77
termination of hostilities, 77, 77f, 90
transitions between states, frequency of, 77, 83t, 84
trends in negotiations, 85, 86f
Momentum, battle data, 68, 70f
Montevideo Declaration, 134, 137
Moon Jae-in, 208
Moore, Jeremy, 2
Multistate models, modeling wartime negotiations, 76–77, 77f, 78, 83t
Nagasaki, bombing of, 74
Napoleon, Louis, 139. See also War of the Roman Republic (1849)
National Labor Relations Act, 34
National Material Capabilities dataset, CINC ratio, 78, 84, 119, 120, 222n. 23
National Organization of Cypriot Fighters (EOKA), 101, 102
NATO, Cold War arms reductions negotiations, 34
Negotiated settlement, 77f
hazard ratios of transitions in wartime diplomacy, 83t
states and transitions of war, 77f, 81f, 82f, 84
Negotiating with the Chinese Communists (Young), 204
Negotiation data, 13–16, 54–61. See also Computational analysis; Statistical analysis
average trajectory of negotiations, 60f
binary negotiation variable, 76
bivariate logistic regressions, 75–76
defining and coding negotiations, 55–56
external negotiations, 56–57, 60t, 61
frequency of negotiations across war-days, 60t
internal negotiations, 56, 60t, 61
modeling. See Modeling wartime negotiations
negotiations in four wars, 58f
recesses during negotiation, 56, 59
results of wartime negotiations, 60t
structural break test, 75
third-party initiatives, 56–57
trends and patterns in negotiations, 60–61, 60f
Netanyahu, Benjamin, 160
Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC), 173, 174, 176, 185
New media sources, effect on data, 55
New York Times, 108, 161, 176, 198, 200
Nicholas I (Tsar of Russia), 10
Nicholas II (Tsar of Russia), 1, 99
Nicolson, Harold, 204
1945, as turning point in third-party interventions. See Post–1945 world
1972, as inflection point in third-party interventions, 75
Nixon, Richard, 103
Noesner, Gary, 34
Nonstate parties. See Third parties
Normative ideals for diplomacy, 203–205
Northern Ireland, 205
North Korea. See also Korean War (1950–53)
perceptions and international acceptance of, 208
North Korean People’s Army (KPA), 166
North Vietnam, 54
Nuclear weapons
effect on attitudes toward war, 74
modeling wartime negotiations, 79, 84, 92
Number of states, modeling wartime negotiations, 79, 92
Nuremberg trials, 74
Obama, Barack, 160
Obang, Philip, 59
The Office (television series), 28
Onu, Peter, 59
On War (Clausewitz), 20
Opponent diplomatic representation, modeling wartime negotiations, 79
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 208
Organization of African Unity (OAU), 40, 55, 59
Organization of American States (OAS), 130, 132
Ottoman Empire. See also Turco-Cypriot War (1974); Turkey
Second Russo-Turkish War (1877–78), 29–30, 66
Oudinot, Nicholas Charles. See War of the Roman Republic (1849)
Out-of-sample data, 186
Outside actors. See Perceptions; Third parties
Overall imbalance
modeling wartime negotiations, 80, 84, 94
Oxford English Dictionary, 23
Pakistan
First Kashmir War (1947–49), 64, 75
Kargil War (1999), 5
Palestine. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
after World War I, 143
Arabs in, 144
avoidance of negotiations, 28
British Mandate in Palestine, 143, 144, 159
Madrid Conference, 36
Mandatory Palestine, 141, 144, 155, 157
map, 145f
United Nations involvement in, 144–145, 149–150, 152, 153–155
“Palestinian Question,” 143–144
Papadopoulos, Georgios, 102
Papal States. See War of the Roman Republic (1849)
Paquisha War (1981), 130
Paraguay, War of the Triple Alliance (1864–70), 27
Paris Climate Agreement, 208–209
Peacetime negotiations, 206–209
Pederson, Geir, 41
People’s Daily (newspaper), 169
People’s Republic of China (PRC). See also Korean War (1950–53)
Assam War (1962), 38
Negotiating with the Chinese Communists (Young), 204
Second Sino-Japanese War (1931–33), 10
People’s Volunteer Army (PVA), 167, 174
Perceptions, 12, 28, 30–31, 128, 200. See also External influences; Propaganda and news media
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 150, 152, 154, 158
Korean War (1950–53), 163, 167–169, 174, 176–178
of weakness, 9, 12, 21, 27–31, 41–43, 167–169, 200, 201, 205
Pérez de Cuéllar, Javier, 2, 40
Persian Gulf War (1990–91), 36
Persistence in negotiations, 31–38
Peru. See Cenepa Valley War (1995); Falklands War (1982)
Pillar, Paul, 33
Planning, insincere negotiations and, 37
Poisson model, coefficient plots for, 113
Poland, Russo-Polish War (1919–20), 32–33
Political pressures. See also External influences; Perceptions; Third parties
Korean War (1950–53), 171–172, 176–178, 190
Polity dataset, 79
Popular culture and perceptions, avoidance of negotiations, 28
Portsmouth Peace Treaty, 1–2, 12, 45, 57
Position, battle data, 68–69, 70f
Post–1945 world, 16–17, 72–76, 201–202, 209. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
statistical validation for, 75–76
Post-Stalin period, 175, 190, 191, 193
PRC. See People’s Republic of China (PRC)
Predicted sincerity of negotiation, computational analysis of archival data, 193t
Price, Ned, 207
The Prince of Peace (UN radio program), 169
Prisoners of war (POWs), Korean War (1950–53), 174–175, 182f, 183, 187–188, 190, 194
Proano, Enrique, 136
Propaganda and news media
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 154, 158
Korean War (1950–53), 163, 164, 169, 171, 174, 176–177
Prussia
field tactics, 37
Second Schleswig-Holstein War (1864), 55
Public opinion, perceptions, and misconceptions. See External influences; Perceptions
Purpose, assumptions in current knowledge of war, 9
Quantitative measurements, diplomatic and wartime data. See Statistical analysis
Quantitative results, computational analysis of archival data of Korean War, 191–194
Raisi, Ebrahim, 207
Rational choice framework for war, 5–6
Rationale for negotiation, 38–47
battlefield information, 42–44
combination of pressure and information, 44–47
deflection of pressure and blame, 35–36
latent external pressure, 39–42. See also Latent external pressures
Recent costs and casualties, computational analysis of archival data, 190, 191
Recent imbalance in fighting
computational analysis of archival data, 190, 191, 193
modeling wartime negotiations, 78, 80, 83, 94, 110
Recesses during negotiation, 56, 59. See also Insincerity in negotiations
Remobilization, 37. See also Insincerity in negotiations
Republic of Korea (ROK). See also Korean War (1950–53)
nuclear issues and, 208
Research sources, effect on data, 54–55
Respites during battle from stalling tactics. See Insincerity in negotiations
Results, modeling wartime negotiations, 80–84
Resupply opportunities. See Insincerity in negotiations
Reversion outcome, 21, 24–26, 33, 202
Ridgway, Matthew, 169–170, 172
Rio de Janeiro Protocol (Rio Protocol), 129–130, 132, 134, 137
Ripeness theory, 8, 50–51, 110, 139, 159, 196–197, 202
Roberts, Ivor, 204
ROK (Republic of Korea). See also Korean War (1950–53)
nuclear issues and, 208
Roman Republic. See War of the Roman Republic (1849)
Rossi, Pellegrino, 122
Rusk, Dean, 168
Russia. See Soviet Union
Russo-Finnish War (1939–40), 55
Russo-Japanese War (1904–5), 1–2, 3, 5, 12, 45, 57
Russo-Polish War (1919–20), 32–33
Saib al-Jaburi, Salah, 151
Sardinia, 57
Satow, Ernest Mason, 23
Satow’s Diplomatic Practice (Roberts), 204
Saudi Arabia. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
Saudi-Yemeni War (1934), 67, 113–114
Schelling, Thomas, 28
Schlesinger, James, 107
Scholarly implications of theory, 201–203
Second Russo-Turkish War (1877–78), 29–30, 66
Second Schleswig-Holstein War (1864), 55
Second Sino-Japanese War (1931–33), 10
Secret negotiations, effect on data, 54
Selection effect, modeling wartime negotiations, 92
Sharett, Moshe, 156
Shining Path (political party), 130, 135
Shuttle diplomacy
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 149–150, 154
Falklands War (1982), 55
Persian Gulf War (1990–91), 36
Side effects from diplomacy, 34–38, 218n. 55. See also Insincerity in negotiations
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 143, 146
computational analysis of archival data, 196
diplomatic advantages of, 47
Sincerity in negotiations, 11, 200
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 142–143, 158
benefits of persistence in negotiations, 31–33
combination of latent external pressures with battlefield information, 44–47, 44f
computational analysis of archival data, 183–184, 185–190
Korean War (1950–53), 163, 172, 183–184, 185–190
predicted negotiation behavior, 44f
Skouloudis, Stefanos, 99
Solano López, Francisco, 27
Somme, battle of the, 69
South Korea. See also Korean War (1950–53)
nuclear issues and, 208
Soviet Council of Ministers, 59, 175
Soviet Union. See also Korean War (1950–53)
alliances, 79
Cold War arms reductions negotiations, 34
Crimean War (1853–56), 10
Madrid Conference, 36
Russo-Finnish War (1939–40), 55
Russo-Japanese War (1904–5), 1–2, 3, 5, 12, 45, 57
Russo-Polish War (1919–20), 32–33
Russo-Turkish War (1877–78), 95
Russo-Ukraine war begun in 2022, 199–200, 212–213
Second Russo-Turkish War (1877–78), 29–30, 66
Syrian civil war, mediation of peace talks, 41
Treaty of Portsmouth, 1–2, 12, 45, 57
World War I, effects of, 143
World War II, 65
Spain, Cenepa Valley War (1995), 129
Sparta, 46
Stalemate, mutually hurting, 50
Stalin, Joseph, 65, 168, 174, 175, 178, 191
Stalling for Time (Noesner), 34
Stalling tactics. See Insincerity in negotiations
Star Trek: Voyager (television series), 20
Statistical analysis, 53–71. See also Coefficient plots
archival documents, 163, 179–190. See also Computational analysis of archival data of Korean War
battle data, 62–70. See also Battle data
battlefield, influenced by negotiation, 113–138. See also Battlefield operations influenced by negotiation
negotiation data, 54–61. See also Negotiation data
1945, as turning point in third-party interventions, 72–76
1972, as inflection point in third-party interventions, 75
Statistical success of negotiations, 197
Strategic objectives, battle data, 63–64
Structural break test, statistical validation, 75
Sudan, 205
Suez Crisis (1956), 211
Supervised learning method, 163, 186, 187, 190
Syria, 205. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
Constitutional Committee, 41
Madrid Conference, 36
taksim (“division”), 101
Talleyrand-Périgord, Charles Maurice de, 203
Tanzania, Ugandan-Tanzanian War (1979), 58f
“Terminal” state, modeling wartime negotiations, 77
Termination of hostilities. See also Negotiated settlement; Victory/defeat
hazard models of, 87f
modeling wartime negotiations, 77, 77f, 88, 90, 94, 223n. 37
states and transitions of war, 77f
Terminology, computational analysis of archival data, 180, 180t, 185
Terrorist attacks, 144
Thatcher, Margaret, 40, 89, 199–200
Theory of wartime negotiations, 3, 11–13, 20–52
assessment of, 52
benefits, 21
costs, 21
defining negotiations, 22–26, 33
direct negotiations, 22
information from battlefield, 21. See also Battle data; Battlefield information
insincerity in negotiations, 21, 33–38. See also Insincerity in negotiations
mediated negotiations, 22. See also Third parties
persistence in negotiations, 31–38
proposals during negotiations, 22
rationale for negotiation, 38–47
sincerity in negotiations, 21, 31–33. See also Sincerity in negotiations
third-parties, effects of, 21. See also Third parties
Third Central American War (1906), 57, 58f
Third parties, 34–38. See also Mediation and mediated negotiations; Shuttle diplomacy; specific conflicts by name
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 159–161
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 128–138
deflection of pressure and blame, 35–36
effects of, 21
Korean War (1950–53), 168, 169, 170
latent external pressures, 39–42, 61. See also Latent external pressures
negotiation data for third-party initiatives, 56–57
1945 as turning point in third-party interventions, 72–76
Russo-Japanese War (1904–5), 1
Thirty-eighth parallel. See Korean War (1950–53)
Thucydides, 46
Timing
assumptions in current knowledge of war, 7–8
modeling wartime negotiations, 79–80
negotiation data, 56, 59, 60t, 61f
relative timing of negotiations, 4f
stalling tactics. See Insincerity in negotiations
Tiwinza. See Cenepa Valley War (1995)
Tokyo, post-war trials, 74
Transitions between states, modeling wartime negotiations, 77, 83t, 84
Treaty of Constantinople, 98
Treaty of Guarantee, 1960, 101, 102, 103
Treaty of Peace and Alliance, 126
Treaty of Portsmouth, 1–2, 12, 45, 57
Treaty of San Stefano, 30
Trends in negotiations. See also Battlefield operations influenced by negotiation
modeling wartime negotiations, 85, 86f
Truman, Harry, Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 144, 151
Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement, 135
Turco-Cypriot War (1974), 17, 49
insincerity in negotiations, 106–109
latent external pressures, 103–109
Turkey. See also Ottoman Empire; Turco-Cypriot War (1974)
1960 Treaty of Guarantee, 101
Greco-Turkish War (1897), 65, 95–100, 110
Russo-Turkish War (1877–78), 29–30, 66, 95
Syrian civil war, mediation of peace talks, 41
Ugandan-Tanzanian War (1979), 58f, 59–60
Ukraine, Russo-Ukraine war begun in 2022, 199–200, 212–213
United Kingdom
1960 Treaty of Guarantee, 101
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 142–144
Falklands War (1982), 2–3, 5, 13, 40, 55–57, 89, 199
Palestine, British involvement, 143, 144
public perceptions of negotiations, 30–31
Turco-Cypriot War (1974), 49, 101, 106
World War I, 69
United Nations
Bosnian War (1992–95), 15
ceasefire committee, Korean War (1950–53), 168
Cenepa Valley War (1995), involvement in, 132
creation of, 39
Framework Convention on Climate Change, 208–209
mediation, 141–142. See also Arab-Israeli War (1948–49)
Syrian civil war, mediation of peace talks, 36, 40–41
United Nations Command (UNC). See Korean War (1950–53)
United Nations General Assembly
Resolution 498, 169
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), 101–102
United Nations Refugee Convention (1951), 212
United Nations Security Council
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 132
Iranian nuclear ambitions and, 20
major powers of, 89
Resolution 53, 152
Resolution 61, 156
Resolution 355, 108
Resolution 360, 105
Resolution 2254, 41
United States. See also Korean War (1950–53)
alliances, 79
Arab-Israeli wars, 144, 151, 158, 160–161
Cenepa Valley War (1995), 129, 137
Cold War arms reductions negotiations, 34
Madrid Conference, 36
nuclear diplomacy efforts, 207–208
Palestine, weapon sales embargo, 151
Third Central American War (1906), 57
Turco-Cypriot War (1974), 49, 103–106
Vietnam War (1965–75), 64
Unit of analysis in computational analysis of archival data, 189–190
Uruguay, López or Paraguayan War (1864–70), 27
Validation of data measurements in computational analysis of archival data, 187–189
Van Fleet, James, 173
Vassos, Timoleon (Greek Colonel), 96
Velasco Ibarra, José María, 130
Victory/defeat
distinction from negotiated settlement, 77f, 222n. 15
states and transitions of war, 77f, 81f, 82f, 84
Vienna summit, 28
Vietnam War (1965–75), 54
avoidance of negotiations, 27, 28–29
Communist diplomacy during, 204
1972, as inflection point in third-party interventions, 75
Walter, Barbara, 205
War of the Roman Republic (1849), 18, 122–128, 139
ceasefire, 125
higher ground advantage, 124–126, 139
map, 123f
War of the Triple Alliance (1864–70), 27
Warsaw Pact, 34
Watson, Alexander, 136
Weakness, perceptions of, 9, 12, 21, 27–30, 41–43, 167–169, 200, 201, 205
Weaponry. See also Nuclear weapons
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), 151
effect on attitudes toward war, 74
Weisiger, Alex, 62
Wilhelm II, German Emperor, 97
Wilson, Harold, 102
Witte, Sergei, 1
Wolf of Wall Street (film), 28
World War I
after effects of, 143
changes in attitudes toward war following, 74
measures of battlefield activity, 69, 70f
Palestine after, 143
public perceptions of negotiations, 30, 49
trench warfare, 69
World War II. See also Post–1945 world
Arab-Israeli War (1948–49), veterans involved in, 151
changes in attitudes toward war following, 74
Israel, establishment of, 143–144
public perceptions of negotiations, 30–31
shifts in international system following, 72–76
Wotton, Henry, 204
Wounded in action (WIA) numbers, 181–182
Wuolijoki, Hella, 55
XYZ meetings, 54