Index

Page numbers followed by letters f and t refer to figures and tables, respectively.

Aberdeen, Lord, 63–64
Afghanistan War (2001), 14, 162, 171
Albright, Madeleine, 169, 172
arms and ammunition
- Britain’s general wartime commercial policy on, 144
- double effect of losing trade in, 44
- German exports of, prior to World War I, 122–23
- prohibitions on trade in
  - during Crimean War, 75–76, 80, 82–83
  - in post-Cold War conflicts, 163, 169, 171, 172, 174, 182
  - during World War I, 86, 92, 95, 103–4, 107–8, 113, 123, 124
- security externalities of trade in, 38, 41, 44
Artois, First Battle of, 99
Asquith, H. H., 98, 99
asymmetric conflicts, in post-Cold War era, 164–65
- wartime trade theory applied to, 165–66
Attlee, Clement, 154
attrition, war(s) of
- export prohibitions in, 107–8
- prevalence of, 49
- World War I as, 99–100, 107
Austria
- in Crimean War, 61, 63, 64
- in First League of Armed Neutrality, 25

Balkan War (1912–13), international trade during, 121–23
Belgium
- during World War I, 90, 101
- during World War II, assumptions about role in, 148
Bethmann Hollweg, Theobald von, 126
blacklists, 23
- during World War I, 96, 105–6
blockade(s)
- in absence of neutral rights, 29–30, 201n51
- almost total, military benefits and economic costs of, 32–33
- Britain’s go-to strategy of, 70, 91
- in Crimean War, 67, 70, 72, 74
- effective, requirements for, 24, 25, 26
- neutral rights and reduction of pressure of, 14
- during Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti, 169
- in Persian Gulf War, 168
- in World War I, 93, 94, 97, 106, 114, 115, 116, 117
Boer War (Second Boer War)
- economic blockade in, 32
- neutral rights in, 26, 34
Bosnian Independence, War of
- trade between belligerents in, 2
- UN trade embargo during, 172
Britain
- in Boer War, 26, 32, 34
- general wartime commercial policy developed by, 16, 140, 141–44, 151, 161, 185
- military aims in Crimean War, 61, 62–65, 203n15
- military strategies in World War II, 153–55
- in Napoleonic Wars, 24
- and neutral rights
  - adoption of, 13, 26, 31
  - development of, 25, 26–27, 60, 69
- in Persian Gulf War, 167
- and rule of 1756, 24, 30, 69
- textile industry in, dependence on German dyes, 134, 158, 161
- trade with Germany
  - before World War I, 88–90, 88t, 91, 122–23
  - during World War I, 1, 55, 104, 106, 131, 138
  - before World War II, 145–47, 146t
  - during World War II, 1, 20, 141, 157–59
- trade with Russia
  - before Crimean War, 58–59, 66
  - during Crimean War, 58–59, 83–84, 84t, 204n40
- violation of maritime neutral rights in World War I, German expectations regarding, 114, 115, 117
- wartime commercial policy in Crimean War, 2, 42, 58–59, 60, 70–72, 83–84, 184
  - after adoption of neutral rights, 73–77, 77t, 85
  - initial, 65–67, 68
- wartime commercial policy in World War I, 2, 13–14, 15, 86, 184
  - changes in war expectations and, 15, 16, 86–87, 97–103, 101t, 105–7, 113, 184, 211n62
  - domestic politics and, 93, 111–12
  - expected length of war and, 86, 90, 96, 97–101, 101t, 105, 108–9, 109t
  - expected stakes of war and, 97, 101–3
  - initial, 15, 87–97, 113
  - product-level tailoring of, 86–87, 93, 95, 96, 97, 103–12, 113
- wartime commercial policy in World War II, 2, 14, 16, 140–41, 150–52, 156–60, 185
  - amendments to, 141
  - domestic politics and, 159–60
  - expected length of war and, 140, 145, 149, 150, 152, 153, 160
  - expected stakes of war and, 140, 149–50, 151, 152, 155, 160, 161
  - preparation for, 141–44
  - product-level tailoring of, 141, 145–51, 157–58, 160–61
  - World War I experience and, 140, 142, 143, 161, 185, 224n103
- Britain, Battle of, 155, 156
- Bush, George H. W., 167, 168

Cardwell, Edward, 73, 74–75
certificates of origin, 22
- use in World War I, 105, 106
- use in World War II, 156
Chalmers, Robert, 94
Champagne, First Battle of, 99
China
- competition with US, wartime trade theory on, 12, 196, 197
- and parallel SWIFT system, development of, 190
- and US, decoupling of economies of, relative gains/losses from, 195
- US trade with, arguments regarding, 192–93
Churchill, Winston, 153, 154, 155
civil wars
- applicability of wartime trade theory to, 6
- interventions in, expected length of, 165
- See also specific civil wars
Cold War
- neutral rights during, 28
- proxy warfare during, 176
- US military engagements after, 14, 162, 164–66
- US policy of containment during, 193
colonial wars, expected length of, 49
contraband goods, 22
- absolute vs. conditional, 27
- exception for, maritime neutral rights and, 24, 25
- in World War II, British policies on, 151
contraband trade, 20
conversion time (of products into military capabilities), 36, 39, 40–43
- applicability to services, 188
- in assessments of security externalities of trade, 47, 58
- and British commercial policy in World War I, 109–11, 110f, 111f, 113
- and British commercial policy in World War II, 149, 150, 160
- in British general wartime commercial policy, 143
- and decision-making regarding wartime trade, 2–3, 3t, 15, 37, 37f, 45, 46–47, 46f, 183–84, 188
- expected length of war and, 15, 36–37, 37f, 48, 54
- and German commercial policy in World War I, 138
- globalization and decrease in, 186, 187
- product ranking based on, 42–43, 54–55, 55f, 87
- in relative gains calculations during war, 194
- and Russian commercial policy in Crimean War, 81–82
Crimean War
- and fundamental problem of trade with the enemy, 60–61, 184
- immediate cause of, 61–62
- initial wartime commercial policies during, 65–68, 85–86, 184
- lessons learned from, and World War I policies, 90
- and neutral rights, development of, 13, 15, 25, 31, 60, 69, 184
- trade between belligerents in, 58–59, 70–72, 81, 83–84, 84t
- war expectations regarding, 61–65, 184
- See also under Britain; France; Russia

Dardanelles campaign, 99, 109
Dayton Peace Accords, 172
Declaration of London (1909), 27, 117, 138
Declaration of Paris (1856), 7, 13, 25–26, 33, 34
Declaration on the Rights of Neutrals, 15, 25, 31, 60, 69, 73
decoupling policies, 11, 195
Delbrük, Clemens von, 120, 131, 136, 137
Denmark
- in First League of Armed Neutrality, 25
- and indirect trade during World War I, 90, 131
- trade with Germany, before World War II, 147
Desart, Lord, 93
direct wartime trade, 20–22
- during Crimean War, 83–84
- during Iraq War (2003), 170
- during Kosovo bombing campaign, 172–73, 172t
- during Libya intervention (2011), 175, 175t
- during Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti, 168, 169
- reasons to restrict, 20–21
- during Russia-Ukraine War, 2, 177
- during World War I, 115, 131, 135–36, 138
  - British prohibition of, 96–97
- during World War II, 1, 141, 157–58
domestic politics
- and peacetime commercial policy, 8–9, 188
- and wartime commercial policy, 9–10
  - British, in Crimean War, 76
  - British, in World War I, 93, 111–12
  - British, in World War II, 159–60
  - French, in Crimean War, 70–71
  - German, in World War I, 120, 136–38
domestic substitution, as indirect trade with the enemy, 21, 22
dyestuffs
- British imports from Germany
  - in World War I, 97, 107
  - in World War II, 1, 141, 158, 159, 161
- German trade policy regarding, in World War I, 133–36, 137–38, 139, 185

economic imperative
- balancing with security imperative, in wartime commercial policy, 8, 18, 36, 45, 113, 133, 134, 136, 138, 142, 183
- and wartime trade, 2, 3, 35, 38
economic interdependence
- of Britain and Germany, prior to World War I, 88–89, 91
- of Britain and Russia, prior to Crimean War, 58–59, 66
- deterrent effect of, wartime trade undercutting, 11–12, 196–97, 203n40
economic power, and military power, trade-offs between, 10–11
energy resources
- British commercial policy in World War II, 148, 149
- Russian, EU/US policies regarding, 11, 179
Esher, Lord, 93, 94, 96
European Union (EU)
- trade with Russia, during Russia-Ukraine War, 11, 177
- wartime commercial policy during Kosovo bombing campaign, 166, 172, 174
expectations about coming war, and wartime commercial policy, 3, 14, 15, 36–37, 52–56, 53f, 55f, 87, 183–84, 196
- changes in, 14, 15, 16, 55–56
  - British, in World War I, 15, 16, 86–87, 97–103, 101t, 105–7, 113, 184, 211n62
  - German, in World War I, 114–18, 123, 125–39, 184–85, 217n98
  - US, during Russia-Ukraine War, 180–81, 182
  - US/EU, in Kosovo bombing campaign, 172–73
- See also expected length of war; expected stakes of war
expected length of war, 50
- and British commercial policy in Crimean War, 184
- and British commercial policy in World War I, 86, 90, 96, 97–101, 101t, 105, 108–9, 109t, 184, 211n62
- and British commercial policy in World War II, 140, 145, 149, 150, 152, 153, 160
- and British military strategies in Crimean War, 63–65
- and British military strategies in World War II, 153–54
- changes during conflict, 49–50
- changes in global economy and, 186
- vs. conversion time of products, 15, 36–37, 37f, 48, 54
- of Crimean War, 61, 63, 64–65, 68
- and French military strategies in Crimean War, 64–65
- and German commercial policy in World War I, 114–15, 119–20, 132, 134, 136, 184–85
- and German military strategies in World War I, 125–28, 129t
- and Russian commercial policy in Crimean War, 184
- and Russian military strategies in Crimean War, 61–63
- state’s position on, sources of information on, 50
- in traditional wars vs. bombing campaigns, 165
- and US commercial policy in post-Cold War conflicts, 171, 172–73
- and US commercial policy in Russia-Ukraine War, 177, 178–79
- and wartime commercial policy, 3, 36–37, 37f, 48–50, 52, 53f, 55f
expected stakes of war, 50
- and British commercial policy in World War I, 97, 101–3, 211n62
- and British commercial policy in World War II, 140, 149–50, 151, 152, 155, 160, 161
- and British general wartime commercial policy, 143
- and British military strategies in World War II, 154–55
- changes during conflict, 51
- factors determining, 49
- and German military strategies in World War I, 129–31
- vs. revenue loss, in wartime commercial decisions, 15, 37, 37f, 45, 48, 54
- state’s position on, sources of information on, 51–52
- and US commercial policy during Russia-Ukraine War, 179
- and wartime commercial policy, 3, 37, 37f, 48, 50–52, 53f, 55f

Falkenhayn, Erich von, 126–27
financial sanctions
- during Russia-Ukraine War, 176, 177
- as short-term policy tools, 13
- US policy of, 190
- during World War I, 131–32
First Gulf War. See Persian Gulf War
First League of Armed Neutrality, 25
food products
- British commercial policy regarding
  - in World War I, 104, 105
  - before World War II, 146
  - in World War II, 149
- German commercial policy regarding
  - before World War I, 121–23
  - in World War I, 121, 124, 131
  - before World War II, 147
- Russian commercial policy regarding
  - in Crimean War, 81–82, 83
- US commercial policy regarding
  - in post-Cold War conflicts, 167, 168–69, 175
food shortages, in Germany during World War I, 119, 129–30
France
- in Algerian War of Independence, 52
- in Crimean War, 25, 61, 62–65
  - commercial policy during, 65, 68–72, 73, 77–81, 79t, 85, 184
- and fundamental problem of trade with the enemy, solution to, 61, 73, 78, 85, 184
- in Napoleonic Wars, 24
- and neutral rights, development of, 13, 25, 60, 69, 205n67
- textile industry in, dependence on German dyes, 134
- trade with Germany
  - before World War I, 122–23
  - before World War II, 147
- trade with Russia
  - before Crimean War, 67–68
  - during Crimean War, 70, 71–72, 83, 84t
- wartime commercial policy prior to neutral rights, 24, 69
- in World War I, 99, 100, 101, 117
  - German military strategies regarding, 117, 125, 127, 129, 132
  - war expectations at start of, 50
- in World War II, 153, 155
  - assumptions about role in, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
  - unified wartime commercial policy with Britain, 160
  - war expectations at start of, 49, 50
Franco-Prussian War (1870–71), 116
- French war expectations regarding, 52
- neutral rights in, 26
free goods, Declaration of London on, 27
fundamental problem of trade with the enemy, 2
- neutral rights and creation of, 14, 18, 19, 23, 31–32, 35, 60, 73, 84, 183
- solution to, 2–3, 36, 37, 39–47, 46f, 183–84

geopolitical rivalry, trade under conditions of, 190–94
Georgia
- and indirect trade during Russia-Ukraine War, 177
- war with Russia, length of, 180
Germany
- rearmament in interwar years, 145
- trade with enemies
  - before World War I, 88–90, 88t, 91
  - during World War I, 1, 55, 104, 106, 131, 133–36, 138–39
  - before World War II, 145–47, 146t
  - during World War II, 1, 20, 141
- wartime commercial policy in World War I, 13–14, 16
  - changes in war expectations and, 114–18, 123, 125–39, 184–85, 217n98
  - domestic politics and, 120, 136–38
  - expected length of war and, 114–15, 119–20, 132, 134, 136
  - initial, 114, 115–25
  - product-level tailoring of, 120–21, 123–24, 132–33
- in World War I
  - military strategies in, 98–102, 125–31
  - war expectations at start of, 50
- in World War II
  - blitzkrieg strategy in, 49
  - violations of international law, and British reprisals, 156, 161
  - war expectations at start of, 50
globalization, and wartime trade, increased likelihood of, 12, 186–87
global wars, and neutral rights, 14, 34–35
Grave, siege of, 40
Gulf War. See Persian Gulf War
Gumbinnen, Battle of, 98, 129

Haiti, Operation Uphold Democracy in
- UN comprehensive trade embargo in, 162, 169, 182
- US commercial policy during, 14, 162–63, 166, 168–69
Hawtrey, R. G., 150
Helfferich, Karl, 133
Hindenburg, Paul von, 126, 127, 128
Hipwood, Charles, 142

India
- and indirect trade during Russia-Ukraine War, 179
- and parallel SWIFT system, 190
indirect wartime trade, 7, 20–22
- during Crimean War, 84
- neutral rights and, 31
- prohibition on, enforcing, 22–23
- during Russia-Ukraine War, 11, 177–78, 179, 192
- during World War I, 86, 92, 95–96, 106, 113, 132, 137, 184
  - British policies designed to limit, 104, 105, 106
  - expectations regarding, 90, 118, 121, 131
- during World War II, 20, 151
Inkerman, Battle of, 63, 65
innocent goods, 32
- and British wartime commercial policy
  - general, 143
  - in World War I, 95
  - in World War II, 140, 150
intermediate products, MNCs and trade in, 187
Iran, during Persian Gulf War, 168
Iraq
- UN comprehensive trade embargo on, 170
- See also Iraq War; Persian Gulf War
Iraq War (2003), 162
- expected stakes of war for US, 165
- US commercial policy during, 14, 162–63, 166, 170, 182
Islamic State, 162, 171
Italy
- in World War I, 100, 131, 134
- in World War II, 154

Japan
- Chinese trade with, during occupation, 1
- invasion of China, neutral rights during, 28
- US embargo on oil exports to, 191
- See also Russo-Japanese War
Joffre, Joseph, 99
Jutland, Battle of, 102, 106

Kosovo, NATO bombing of, 162, 171–74
- EU commercial policy during, 166
- neutral rights during, 28
- US commercial policy during, 14, 16–17, 163, 166, 172–73, 182
- wartime trade during, 171

League of Nations, efforts to remove neutrality, 27–28, 35
Leagues of Armed Neutrality, 25, 34
letters of marque, 24–25, 65
Libya, US intervention in (2011), 162, 171, 174–75
- wartime commercial policy during, 14, 16, 163, 166, 182
- wartime trade during, 171, 174–75, 175t
licenses, for wartime trade
- in Crimean War, 70, 71–72, 81
- in post-Cold War conflicts, 168
- in World War I
  - British policy on, 91, 97, 104, 105, 106–7, 113
  - German policy on, 134, 138
- in World War II, 141, 157–59, 160, 161, 185
Lloyd George, David, 100
Louis XIV, Wars of, 40
Lushington, Stephen, 73

maritime neutral rights. See neutral rights
Marne, First Battle of, 98, 126, 132
military power
- and economic power, trade-offs between, 10–11
- See also security imperative
Milley, Mark, 181
Milosevic, Slobodan, 172–73
minimal manufacturing
- efforts to prevent neutrals from engaging in, in World War I, 105
- as indirect trade with the enemy, 21–22, 23
Moltke the Younger, Helmuth von, 98, 117, 125, 126, 136
Mulhouse, Battle of, 129
multinational corporations (MNCs), rise of, implications for wartime trade, 186–87

Napoleonic Wars, 24, 25
- licenses granted during, 72
- Prussia in, 116
Napoleon III (President of France), 64
Netherlands
- assumptions about role in World War II, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
- in First League of Armed Neutrality, 25
- and indirect trade during World War I, 90, 118, 121, 131
neutral rights, 23–24
- adoption of, and wartime commercial policies, 13, 14–15, 29–33, 60, 73, 116, 183
- vs. belligerent rights, contestation over, 26–27, 33
- British adherence to, general wartime commercial policy and, 143, 161, 221n23
- British violation of, German expectations in World War I, 114, 115, 117, 131, 138
- as condition of possibility for wartime trade, 7–8, 10, 18, 35
- development of, 13, 15, 24–27, 28, 34, 60, 69
- and fundamental problem of trade with the enemy, 14, 18, 19, 23, 31–32, 35, 60, 73, 84, 183
- German expectations regarding, and commercial policy in World War I, 114–21, 138
- German violation of, British expectations in World War II, 156, 161
- global wars and, 14, 34–35
- international organizations’ efforts to remove, 27–28, 35
- persistence of, explanations for, 33–35
- principles of, 24, 25, 72
- prohibition of trade in absence of, 13, 18–19, 24, 29, 183
- and reduced benefits of severing trade, 30–32, 170, 183
- US Civil War as first test of, 26–27, 33
- wartime commercial policies before introduction of, 18–19, 29–30, 65–68, 71
- in World War I, 27–28, 34–35, 90–91, 92, 106
- in World War II, 140, 152, 156
- world without, UN comprehensive trade embargoes simulating, 7, 14, 16, 162, 166–70, 181–82
neutral states
- minimal manufacturing in, 21–22, 23
- presumed arrangements in World War II, and British wartime commercial policy, 148–49, 151–52
- rationing of exports to
  - British policy in World War I and, 96, 106
  - British policy in World War II and, 151–52
- responsibility to exercise due diligence, 27
- wartime trade conducted through, 7, 21–22
  - during Crimean War, 74, 82, 83–84, 84t
  - during World War I, 118, 121, 131, 135, 137
  - during World War II, 20, 151
Nicholas I (Tsar of Russia), 62, 63
Nicholls, J. W., 150
Nivelle offensive, 100
North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), renegotiation of, 190
Norway
- assumptions about role in World War II, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
- trade with Germany, during World War I, 135

Obama, Barack, 174
open economy politics perspective, 8–9
Oppenheim, Lassa, 92
Ottoman Empire
- in Crimean War, 62
  - trade with Russia during, 70
- in World War I, 99

Palmerston, Lord, 64, 203n15
Paskevich, Ivan, 62, 63
peace, commercial, 196
- See also economic interdependence
peacetime commercial policy
- scholarship on, 8–9
- vs. wartime commercial policy, 4, 8, 9, 188–90, 193
Persian Gulf War, 162
- expected length of, 49, 167
- UN comprehensive trade embargo in, 28, 162, 167–68, 182
- US commercial policy during, 14, 167–68
poison gas, use in World War I, 108
- and changes in British wartime commercial policy, 184
privateering, 24–25, 30
- abolition of, 25, 26
product(s)
- contraband, 22, 27
- conversion into military capabilities, variation in time required for, 36, 39, 40–43
- ranking based on conversion time, 42–43, 54–55, 55f, 87
- ranking based on revenue loss, 43–45, 55, 55f, 87
- revenue contribution of, variation in, 36, 40, 43–44
- security externalities of wartime trade in, variation in, 36, 38, 39–45
- See also conversion time; revenue loss
product level, wartime commercial policy set at, 2–3, 15, 20, 59
- British
  - in Crimean War, 75–76, 77t
  - general, 140, 143–44, 161, 185
  - in World War I, 86–87, 93, 95, 96, 97, 103–12, 113
  - in World War II, 140, 141, 145–51, 157–58, 160–61
- EU, during Kosovo campaign, 166, 173
- French, in Crimean War, 78–80, 79t
- German, in World War I, 120–21, 123–24, 132–33
- Russian, in Crimean War, 82–83, 208n160
- as solution to fundamental problem of trade with the enemy, 36, 37, 183–84
- US, in post-Cold War conflicts, 163, 171, 176, 178–80
prohibition on trade (severing trade in war)
- in absence of neutral rights, 13, 18–19, 24, 29–30, 60, 85–86, 183
- after adoption of neutral rights, reduced benefits of, 31, 170
- in Crimean War, 65–68, 71, 85–86, 184
- enforcing, 22–23
- as long-term policy tool, 13, 56
- qualifications within, 7
- security imperative and, 4
- UN comprehensive trade embargoes and, 16, 162–63, 166, 167–68, 169, 170
- US policies in post-Cold War conflicts and, 162–63
- in World War I, 140
  - British policies of, 92, 93–94, 107–12, 108t, 109t, 110f, 111f
  - German policies of, 120–21, 122, 123–24, 132–33, 134
- in World War II, British policies of, 150–51, 152, 156–57
- See also blockade(s)
proxy warfare
- applicability of wartime trade theory in, 175, 182
- during Cold War, 176
- US role in Russia-Ukraine War as, 162, 163, 175–76, 182
Prussia
- in First League of Armed Neutrality, 25
- in Napoleonic Wars, 116
- and trade between belligerents in Crimean War, 84
- See also Germany
Putin, Vladimir, 176

Qaddafi, Muammar, 174
quotas, on exports to neutral states, 23
- British, in World War I, 96, 106
- British, in World War II, 151–52

Race to the Sea, 98, 109, 126, 132
rationing schemes. See quotas
raw materials
- British wartime policy regarding
  - during World War I, 88, 95, 96, 97, 104, 105
  - during World War II, 146, 149, 150, 151, 153, 158, 161
- conversion time into military capabilities, 40–41, 178
- German stockpiles of, prior to World War I, 119–20
- German wartime policy regarding, during World War I, 124
- revenue loss from severed trade in, 44
- US prohibition on exports to Russia, during Russia-Ukraine war, 178, 181
relative gains
- neutral rights and concerns over, 170
- states’ calculations of, 10–11, 194–95
revenue, variation in products’ contribution to, 36, 40, 43–44
revenue loss
- in assessments of security externalities of trade, 48, 58
- and British commercial policy in World War I, 101, 106–7
- and British commercial policy in World War II, 158, 159
- and decision-making regarding wartime trade, 3, 3t, 15, 37, 37f, 45, 46–47, 46f, 47, 188
- expected stakes of war and, 15, 37, 37f, 45, 48, 54
- and future security, 38, 45–46, 48, 50–51
- and German commercial policy in World War I, 133, 134, 136
- product ranking based on, 43–45, 55, 55f, 87
- and Russian commercial policy in Crimean War, 82
Romania
- in World War I, 100, 127
- in World War II, assumptions about role in, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
rule of 1756, 24, 30, 69
Russia
- in Crimean War, 61–62
  - wartime commercial policy during, 2, 58–59, 60–61, 73, 81–83, 85, 184
- EU/US sanctions on, during Russia-Ukraine War, 11, 176, 177, 178–79, 180, 181, 191, 192
- and neutral rights, development of, 13, 25, 60, 72
- and parallel SWIFT system, 190
- trade with Britain
  - before Crimean War, 58–59, 66
  - during Crimean War, 58–59, 83–84, 84t, 204n40
- trade with France
  - before Crimean War, 67–68
  - during Crimean War, 70, 71–72, 83, 84t
- trade with Germany
  - before World War I, 122–23, 134
  - during World War I, 1, 135–36
- trade with US, during Russia-Ukraine War, 11, 176–80, 191, 192
- and UN Security Council, breakdown of consensus at, 172
- in World War I, 98, 100, 117, 127
  - German military strategies regarding, 117, 125–27, 129, 132
  - withdrawal from, 128
- See also Soviet Union
Russia-Ukraine War, 175–81
- expected length of, 180
- trade between belligerents in, 2, 11, 176–80, 191
- US commercial policy during, 11, 176–81
- US proxy war against Russia in, 162, 163, 175–76, 182
Russo-Japanese War
- neutral rights in, 26, 34
- Russian commercial policy during, 46–47

Saddam Hussein, 167ww
Samsonov, Alexander, 126
sanctions
- as long-term policy tool, 13
- relative gains calculations and, 195
- against Russia, during Ukraine war, 11, 176, 177, 178–79, 180, 181
- trade-offs between economic and military power in, 11
- See also financial sanctions
Saudi Arabia, during Persian Gulf War, 168
Schlieffen Plan, 98, 125–26
- failure of, 16, 126, 132
Second Boer War. See Boer War
Second League of Armed Neutrality, 25
security competition, trade under conditions of, 190–94
security externalities of trade, 38–39, 202n5
- assessments of, 47, 58
- differentiation by product, 36, 38, 39–45
- wartime trade theory and implications for, 195–96
security imperative
- balancing with economic imperative, in wartime commercial policy, 8, 18, 36, 45, 113, 133, 134, 136, 138, 142, 183
- and severing trade in war, 4
- and wartime trade, 2, 3, 38
semiconductors, US-China trade in, 193, 196
Serbia
- arms embargo on, during Kosovo bombing campaign, 172
- US trade with, during Kosovo bombing campaign, 171, 173–74, 173t
service sector, applicability of wartime trade theory to, 187–88
Sevastopol, siege of, 61, 64–65, 74, 80
severing trade in war. See prohibition on trade
Shalikashvili, John, 169
Sinope, Battle of, 62, 64
Smith, Llewellyn, 91–92
Somme, Battle of, 99
South African War, 143
Soviet Union
- trade with Germany, before World War II, 147
- in World War II
  - assumptions about role in, and British wartime commercial policy, 148, 152
  - German declaration of war on, 153–54
  - German invasion of, 155
  - Nazi-Soviet Pact, 153
Spain
- assumptions about role in World War II, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
- and neutral rights
  - development of, 25, 26
  - policies before introduction of, 24
stalemate, in World War I, 98–99, 100, 126–27
- and changes in British commercial policy, 86–87, 113, 184
- and changes in British military strategies, 98
- and changes in German commercial policy, 132
- and changes in German military strategies, 128
stockpiles
- British, prior to World War I, 98
- German
  - prior to World War I, 116, 118–20, 138
  - prior to World War II, 147, 150
- of Russian produce, prior to Crimean War, 66, 68
- and security externalities, 41–42
Stoltenberg, Jens, 181
submarine warfare, unrestricted, introduction in World War I, 127, 128
- and German wartime commercial policies, 114–15, 132, 135–36, 139, 185, 217n98
Sweden
- in First League of Armed Neutrality, 25
- and indirect wartime trade during World War I, 118, 121, 131, 135
- trade with Germany before World War I, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
SWIFT system
- Russian banks removed from, 176, 177
- US policy of removing states from, 190
Syria, US intervention in (2014), 162, 171
- wartime commercial policy during, 14, 171

Taliban, prohibition on trade with, 162, 171
tank(s), introduction in World War I, 100
Tannenberg, Battle of, 98, 126, 129
tariffs
- changes in schedule of, as solution to fundamental problem of trade with the enemy, 61, 78, 207n132
- French wartime commercial policy based on, in Crimean War, 78–80, 79t, 85, 184
- German policies on, prior to World War I, 121
- and German wartime commercial policy in World War I, 124, 132
- on products of enemy origin, 22
- Russian wartime commercial policy based on, in Crimean War, 82–83
taxation
- in Britain, during World War I, 102
- in Germany, during World War I, 133
- and revenue lost due to trade ban, estimates of, 43–44
technologies, new
- and expected length of war, 49
- introduction in World War I, 100
temporal dynamics
- in study of politics, 12–13
- wartime trade theory and novel use of, 13
textile industry
- British
  - World War I commercial policies regarding, 107, 113
  - World War II commercial policies regarding, 1, 141, 146, 158, 161
- German, lobbying during World War I, 120, 137
- worldwide dependence on German dyes, 134
trade with the enemy. See wartime trade
Treaty of Washington (1871), 27
Troubridge, Ernest, 94
Trump, Donald, 190
Turkey
- and indirect trade during Russia-Ukraine War, 11, 178, 192
- during Persian Gulf War, 168
- during World War II, British policies regarding, 148, 153
- See also Ottoman Empire

Ukraine
- German occupation of, during World War I, 100
- trade with Russia, during wartime, 2
- See also Russia-Ukraine War
unipolarity, post-Cold War, 164
- and neutral rights, 28
United Nations
- arms embargo on Libya, 174
- arms embargo on Serbia, 172
- breakdown of consensus at, and US wartime commercial policy, 170–71, 172
- and comprehensive trade embargoes, 16, 162–63, 166, 167–68, 169, 170, 181–82, 185
- efforts to remove neutrality, 28, 35, 166
- and neutral rights in contemporary conflicts, 7, 14, 16, 162, 166–70
United States
- and China
  - competition between, wartime trade theory on, 12, 196, 197
  - decoupling of economies of, relative gains/losses stemming from, 195
  - trade with, arguments regarding, 192–93
- and neutral rights, development of, 25, 26
- post-Cold War military engagements of, 162, 164–66
- trade with Germany
  - before World War I, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
  - during World War I, 121, 131, 134, 135, 137
  - during World War II (before December 1941), 20
- unipolar status after end of Cold War, 164
- wartime commercial policy in post-Cold War conflicts, 14, 16–17, 162–63, 166, 181–82, 185
  - after breakdown of consensus at UN, 170–71, 172
  - data on, 163–64, 165
  - Haiti operation (1994–95), 168–69
  - Iraq War (2003), 170
  - Kosovo bombing campaign, 14, 16–17, 163, 166, 171, 172–74, 173t
  - Libya intervention (2011), 171, 174–75, 175t
  - Persian Gulf War, 167–68
  - Russia-Ukraine War, 11, 176–81, 191, 192
  - Syria intervention (2014), 14, 171
  - UN comprehensive trade embargoes and, 162–63, 166, 167–68, 169
- during World War I
  - Britain’s borrowing from, 102, 106
  - entry in, 100, 128
  - neutrality in, 28, 118
  - political battle over good opinion of, 127, 128, 131
- during World War II
  - assumptions about role in, and British wartime commercial policy, 148, 152
  - entry in, 153, 154, 155
UN Oil-for-Food program, 170
US Civil War, as first test of neutral rights, 26–27, 33

Verdun, Battle of, 99, 127

wartime commercial policy
- after adoption of neutral rights, 13, 14–15, 29–33, 60, 73, 116, 183
- balancing of economic and security concerns in, 8, 18, 36, 45, 183
- changes in war expectations and, 14, 15, 16, 55–56
- definition of, 4, 20
- domestic politics and, 9–10
- enforcing, 22–23
- expected length of war and, 3, 36–37, 37f, 48–50, 52, 53f, 55f
- expected stakes of war and, 3, 37, 37f, 48, 50–52, 53f, 55f
- before introduction of neutral rights, 18–19, 29–30, 84–85
- vs. peacetime commercial policy, 4, 8, 9, 188–90, 193
- restrictive vs. lax, 4, 53f
- set at product level, 2–3, 15, 20, 59
- See also under specific countries
wartime trade (trade with the enemy), 1–2
- benefits of, 47
- bilateral level of, wartime trade theory on, 4–5, 57–59
- during Crimean War, 58–59, 70–72, 81, 83–84, 84t
- definition of, 19–20
- direct vs. indirect, 7, 20–22
- globalization and increased likelihood of, 12, 186–87
- during Iraq War (2003), 170
- during Kosovo bombing campaign, 173–74, 173t
- lack of clear understanding of, 6–7
- legal vs. contraband, 20
- neutral rights as condition of possibility for, 7–8, 10, 18, 35
- during Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti, 168, 169
- during Russia-Ukraine War, 2, 11, 176–80
- scholarship on, 6
- trade-offs between economic and military power in, 10–11
- during US intervention in Libya (2011), 174–75, 175t
- during US intervention in Syria (2014), 171
- during World War I, 1, 55, 91, 104, 106, 113, 115, 131, 132, 133–36, 138–39, 184
- during World War II, 1, 20, 141, 157–59
- See also direct wartime trade; fundamental problem of trade with the enemy; indirect wartime trade; prohibition on trade
wartime trade theory, 10, 15, 36–37, 37f, 53–56, 55f, 59, 87
- applicability to service sector, 187–88
- asymmetric conflicts and, 165–66
- on bilateral level of trade between enemies, 4–5, 57–59
- case studies supporting, 13–14, 15, 184–85
  - Crimean War, 73, 76, 85
  - post-Cold War conflicts, 162, 163, 171, 173–75, 178, 181
  - World War I, 86, 87, 97, 112–13, 114–15, 119
  - World War II, 140
- civil wars and, 6
- contributions of, 11–13, 194–97
- vs. economic interdependence theory, 11–12, 196–97, 203n40
- endogeneity concerns regarding, response to, 56–57
- geopolitical rivalry and, 190–94
- proxy warfare and, 175, 182
- scope conditions of, 5–6
  - stress test of, 17, 185–94
Wilson, James, 74
Wilson, Woodrow, 100
World Trade Organization (WTO)
- on economic nationality of products, 22
- national security exception to rules of peacetime trade, 189
World War I
- neutral rights in, 27–28, 34–35, 90–91, 92, 106
  - German expectations regarding, 114–18, 121, 138
- trade between belligerents in, 1, 55, 91, 104, 106, 113, 115, 131, 132, 133–36, 138–39, 184
- See also under specific countries
World War II
- neutral rights in, 140, 152, 156
- trade between belligerents in, 1, 141, 157–59
- unified wartime commercial policy among Allies in, 160
- See also under specific countries

Yugoslavia
- assumptions about role in World War II, and British wartime commercial policy, 148
- NATO bombing of, US commercial policy during, 14, 16–17, 163, 166, 172–73, 182
- wartime trade with Croatia, 2
- See also Kosovo; Serbia

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