Epilogue

One of the great ironies of our age is that while our technological powers are tremendous, our ability to address collective-action problems is small and declining. Solutions to our critical challenges often seem beyond our reach; yet we cannot let despair rob us of the motivation needed to double our efforts when the odds of success diminish. How should we think productively about how to navigate a future that seems both highly uncertain and gloomy?

In some ways, we are well situated to think rigorously about this question. We know a fair amount about the complex causal linkages between ecological systems, regional economies, and governance. We have a wealth of historical knowledge about what has happened in societies that were approaching the release phases of their adaptive cycles. Psychology has provided significant insight into the variables that affect flourishing, and we have access to the wisdom of many traditions about how to live well. And yet, the number of options for promoting our welfare is huge in this age of information overload, making the decision landscape muddier. The scale and complexity of our global challenges, our political issues, and our moral obligations cast us into a sea of competing considerations. The welter of specialized knowledge and competing analyses leads to greater uncertainty. To compensate, we must creatively lump potential futures into a few likely scenarios in order to simplify decision-making.

Scenario planning is widely used by governments, businesses, and militaries to identify the most promising strategies to adopt. Climate scientists use a range of scenarios to tame uncertainty by highlighting different pathways we might take and show how these are likely to affect global warming. We can adapt these climate scenarios to help us think critically about whether to invest our time in strengthening resilience skillful habits. Brian C. O’Neil and colleagues have developed five scenarios for this century, called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), based on our current understanding of the linkages between many variables that shape the functioning of our global socio-ecological systems.¹ These scenarios have been through a lengthy peer review process. The brief narratives that characterize the scenarios sketch the results of complex feedback loops connecting governance, resource usage, population, economic growth, inequality, and many other aspects of societies. Although these were created to reflect how different global pathways will affect climate change mitigation and adaptation, they nicely serve our purpose of seeing how options for flourishing can play out.

I propose we focus on two SSPs that occupy opposite corners of the scenario space with respect to breadth of flourishing. Scenario SSP1, “the green road,” outlines an optimistic future in which societies approach just sustainability, and SSP3, “the rocky road,” describes a pessimistic picture in which societies descend into international and internal conflict that sidelines sustainability. The other three—high inequality; fossil-fuel-driven development; and the middle road—have importantly different implications for climate mitigation and adaptation, but less significant implications for our approaches to flourishing. How would a decision to invest in cultivating skillful resilience habits likely affect flourishing in each scenario?

In the green road scenario, strong investment in environmentally friendly technologies like renewable energy gradually reduces negative environmental impacts. Societies increasingly internalize the costs of environmental and social harms, further reducing these. In addition, human well-being rather than economic growth is increasingly the focus of development; consumption shifts toward less energy- and resource-intensive goods. Population growth decreases with greater investment in health and education. Inequality also decreases both internationally and within countries. Lastly, “Management of the global commons slowly improves, facilitated by increasingly effective and persistent cooperation and collaboration of local, national, and international organizations and institutions, the private sector, and civil society.”² In short, we move toward sustainability with reasonable speed.

To take this road, global leaders would need to become much better at collaborating well over time. They would need the support within their own countries for sacrificing some perceived short-term national interests in order to prioritize goals that can be supported by the majority of countries. In democratic countries this can only happen if populations understand enough about system dynamics at a global scale, the tradeoffs necessary for collaboration at that scale, and the value for all of a more just distribution of the benefits and costs of progress. Because humility is necessary both for effective collaboration and for recognizing that our systems understanding is always partial and flawed, our leaders would also need strong humility skills, which must be supported by the populace. Similar points apply to frugality norms. The shift away from high material consumption toward social, aesthetic, and spiritual goods, and the emphasis on decreasing inequality and increasing overall well-being, dovetail with the strengthening of key frugality skills. Given the level of popular support necessary for leaders to forge far-reaching sustainability agreements, their cultures are likely to be characterized by norms that reinforce resilience skillful habits.

In this context, we would be more likely to flourish as a result of cultivating resilience skillful habits. Doing so would support a global movement toward sustainability, a movement that enhances flourishing for other humans and for populations of threatened nonhumans. This is likely to provide meaningful engagement, participation in something larger than self, and a sense of achievement. We would be developing skills that are valued by most of our communities and that strengthen our relationships, both of which contribute to flourishing. Our paths through life would be eased as we work on skills that are rewarded by our institutions. In an important sense, we would be swimming with the current. Of course, there would also be some costs. We might feel too confined by norms that emphasize collaboration and humility. I might miss activating my inner rebel that loves pushing against the current. I might also miss some of the conveniences that enable more time thinking and writing. But these costs seem to pale in comparison with the gains.

Others who are invested in the currently dominant skillful habits would no doubt pay more dearly for the shift in cultural norms, but individualistic, competitive, and conviction skills would still be valued. The green road is not a scenario in which capitalism is abandoned or competitive sports downplayed. Nor is it all peace and love, a hippie paradise. It will contain plenty of competition and conflict. It will require the binocular vision that has been a theme throughout this book, and the wisdom to know when to engage our competitive skills and when to invest heavily rather than frugally. Our inevitable mistakes will strengthen our humility skills, but our soft convictions must be strong enough that we can hold our course, when deviating would garner more immediate accolades.

But what about the other scenario, the rocky road strewn with strife? In this scenario global institutions are weak, and cooperation between countries limited to what serves short-term national agendas. Conflict between and within countries becomes more frequent, and security becomes more important. Economies become more regulated as countries try to provide their own energy and food; technological development diminishes and is not widely shared. Inequality remains high both between and within countries, and low concern about environmental issues strongly affects poorer populations. Most people also struggle with lack of investment in community health and education. Human population grows in poorer regions that have limited access to family planning. Consumption remains energy-intensive and materially focused. Fossil fuel use remains high in countries where this is the most accessible form of energy. Authoritarian governance spreads as a result of increased conflict and resources shortages. Social unrest is common, and progress toward sustainability is slow. Fires, flooding, and extreme heat are much more common, but only rich nations can afford to invest heavily in adaptation. The widespread suffering of multitudes will be highly salient. This future is deeply disturbing, but it is not total collapse, at least in the developed world. It is, however, a world in which serious release occurs frequently on multiple scales.

In this scenario, the norms reinforcing our dominant skillful habits do not change in most places. Competition will become more prevalent, and the stakes associated with winning and losing will seem higher. A me-first form of individualism may become even more common, and leadership full of conviction will seem a bulwark against the surrounding chaos. Many more will practice frugality out of necessity, but they are likely to crave the abundance still found among the elites.

Those who have worked to develop resilience skills are likely to gravitate toward subgroups with similar orientations—smaller communities removed from the sources of conflict or organizations with cultures that counter the dominant trends. Their systems skills will enable them to understand the impacts of larger-scale systems and help them to craft resilient communities within that context. Their collaborative skills will enable them to grasp the opportunities to build relationships with diverse groups and avoid intractable conflict. Their capacity for hope will carry them through the chaos with less psychological scarring. Their humility skills help reduce the tendency for conflict absorbed from the larger culture and increase the gratitude for the many goods they still find in life. Effective reflection will tend to dampen the negative impact of large-scale events and heighten appreciation for the strengths and weaknesses exhibited in the all-too-human efforts to manage life on the rocky road.

Their frugality skills will enable them to find plenitude within the resource constraints that will characterize the lives of most people. They will be able to happily make do with what they have available. But perhaps most importantly, they will be focused primarily on intangible goods—strong relationships, natural beauty, and their own character development—which can still be savored no matter what else is happening. It is easy to get caught up in the dramas of the day, but we can cultivate the skills of stepping back and appreciating all that we have. To be sure, large parts of the natural world will be severely degraded in this scenario, but so much beauty will remain. As Mary Oliver reminds us, “Sometimes I need only to stand wherever I am to be blessed.”³ Even in a large city, bits of nature can be a balm. Warm words from a good friend can soothe our uncertainties. The touch of a lover can transport us farther than the fastest plane. More than almost anyone, Mary Oliver has shown us how to find the gifts we are bequeathed even in a broken world.

But would these skills give us enough to really flourish along the rocky road? As I have repeatedly said, they are no silver bullets. Yet we would be much more likely to flourish than people whose character reflects the norms reinforcing individualistic competition for increasingly scarce material abundance. On average, such people will be less likely to effectively navigate the tumult, to craft supportive communities, and to find the opportunities for meaningful engagement provided by our challenges. As I have argued in previous chapters, our skills would likely be more than enough to support genuine flourishing even amid the diminishing prospects for peace, justice, and sustainability.

In both these scenarios and those that fall between them, we are likely to be better off if we cultivate resilience traits. Such skillful habits are better aligned with the challenges and opportunities that we find in the age of climate change. In a different age of rapid growth and plentiful resources, our culture’s dominant skillful habits might better align with the times. In all parts of the adaptive cycle, it is wise to develop contrasting sets of skills, though that is hard, given our limited time and capacity. Even if we pursue the kind of binocular vision I have advocated, we will inevitably have to choose where to concentrate our character development. Being in tune with the times will help us to flourish.

The resilience skills have been important in many traditions that inform the United States and other cultures. We are not trying to invent something new, but rather to retrieve and reemphasize skills that were once more common. While resilience skills are in tension with our dominant skillful habits, the two sets of skills can be fruitfully combined as we develop better binocular vision that integrates them into the more robust and flexible toolboxes we need to address our challenges. A powerful global movement toward justice and sustainability provides hope that we can achieve that combination of skills.

What I most need now are guides that can help me to stay the course, to practice and occasionally fail to exemplify the character traits that will help me to flourish while we engage in the great struggle to change the structures of large-scale systems that shape our lives. Mary Oliver has been one such guide, helping me to see the gifts that surround me. Another is the philosopher of struggle, Friedrich Nietzsche. He shows us how to find joy in what is difficult, how to welcome our challenges rather than resent them. He continually employs the image of the dancer who embodies the life-affirming joy of movement amid tumult. He says, “Smooth ice is paradise for those who dance with expertise.”⁴ Smooth ice is dangerous for most of us to walk upon, but for some, it can bring joy. A good measure of the resilience skillful habits will give us much of the expertise needed to dance amid the dangers of the age of climate change.