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Inadvertent Expansion: How Peripheral Agents Shape World Politics: Notes

Inadvertent Expansion: How Peripheral Agents Shape World Politics
Notes

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Notes

table of contents
  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Dedication
  4. Contents
  5. List of Figures and Tables
  6. Acknowledgments
  7. Introduction
  8. Chapter 1. A Theory of Inadvertent Expansion
  9. Chapter 2. Patterns of Inadvertent Expansion, 1816–2014
  10. Chapter 3. Inadvertent Expansion in the American South: The United States
  11. Chapter 4. Inadvertent Expansion on the Eurasian Steppe: Russia
  12. Chapter 5. Inadvertent Expansion in Southeast Asia: France
  13. Chapter 6. The Dilemma of Inadvertent Expansion: Japan and Italy
  14. Chapter 7. Inadvertent Annexation in East Africa: Germany
  15. Conclusion
  16. Notes
  17. References
  18. Index
  19. Copyright

Notes

Acknowledgments

  1. 1. Jervis 1998, 162.

Introduction

  1. 1. Moon 1989, 564, 566–567; Huttenback 1993, 228–229; James 1997, 102.
  2. 2. Huttenback 1993, 236.
  3. 3. Huttenback 1962, 99; Moon 1989, 572.
  4. 4. The Sind armies numbered approximately eleven thousand. James 1997, 103. See also Huttenback 1962, 102–103; Moon 1989, 573.
  5. 5. Moon 1989, 573–574; James 1997, 104.
  6. 6. It turned out the clever pun was not attributable to Napier. Moon 1989, 575; James 1997, 105.
  7. 7. Moon 1989, 575.
  8. 8. “Sir Robert Peel to Sir James Graham, September 19, 1843,” in Parker 1899, 11; Gash 1972, 488–489.
  9. 9. Gash 1972, 488; Ansari 2005, 41–42.
  10. 10. Moon 1989, 575.
  11. 11. Gladstone 1876, 875.
  12. 12. Huurdeman 2003, 124–128.
  13. 13. “Sir Robert Peel to Lord Ripon, December 9, 1843,” in Parker 1899, 18.
  14. 14. Area and population data from Territorial Change Data (v5.0). Tir et al. 1998.
  15. 15. On gains, see Gilpin 1981, chap. 3; Liberman 1998. On anarchy, see Mearsheimer 2014, chap. 2. On technology and geography, see Van Evera 1999, chap. 6; K. Adams 2004. On commitment problems, see Fazal 2007. On state institutional capacity, see Zakaria 1998. On intentions, see Schweller 1994; Glaser 2010, 35–40.
  16. 16. Gilpin 1981, 106.
  17. 17. Mearsheimer 2014, 31, 43.
  18. 18. Fazal 2007, 38.
  19. 19. Altman 2017, 2020.
  20. 20. On regime type, see Lake 1992; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003, 412–414. On capitalism, see Hobson 1902, chaps. 4, 6–7; Lenin 1987. On psychology, see Taliaferro 2004. On status, see J. Barnhart 2016. On nationalist mythmaking, see J. Snyder 1991. See also Kupchan 1994. On xenophobia, see Maass 2020. On the cult of the offensive, see J. Snyder 1984, 2014. See also Van Evera 1984, 1999, chap. 7.
  21. 21. Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003, 414.
  22. 22. Taliaferro 2004, 48.
  23. 23. Krause and Eiran 2018, 480.
  24. 24. P. MacDonald 2020, 41.

1. A Theory of Inadvertent Expansion

  1. 1. See Goertz and Diehl 1992, chap. 4.
  2. 2. On the Alaska purchase, see Alessio and Renfro 2016.
  3. 3. On military occupation, see Edelstein 2008. On neotrusteeship, see Fearon and Laitin 2004.
  4. 4. Zakaria 1998, 5.
  5. 5. Lynn-Jones 1998, 161n10.
  6. 6. For definitions of empire, see Doyle 1986, 30–47; Nexon and Wright 2007.
  7. 7. Weisiger (2014, 359), e.g., defines “conquest” as a “decisive military victory.”
  8. 8. Mearsheimer 2014, 33–34.
  9. 9. Brooks and Wohlforth 2016.
  10. 10. Elman 1996, 28–29. See also Labs 1997, 12–14.
  11. 11. Schweller 2006, 112–113.
  12. 12. Though, Schweller (2006, 113) does posit that “democracies have little or no appetite for risky, aggressive expansion.”
  13. 13. Doyle 1986, 25–26.
  14. 14. Gallagher and Robinson 1953; Galbraith 1960; Fieldhouse 1973, 76–84.
  15. 15. Robinson 1972; Darwin 1997; Hyam 1999.
  16. 16. P. MacDonald 2020, 43.
  17. 17. Oxford English Dictionary, s.v. “Autonomous, adj.,” accessed July 2023, available at https://doi.org/10.1093/OED/6139242216.
  18. 18. New Oxford American Dictionary, 3rd ed., ed. Angus Stephenson and Christine A. Lindberg (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010), s.v. “Inadvertent.”
  19. 19. For the seminal discussion of private violence in international politics, see Thomson 1996.
  20. 20. Strachan 2004, 30–31; Greenhalgh 2014, 118–119.
  21. 21. Stewart 1982, 23–24; Turnbull 2009, 27–31.
  22. 22. Esterhuyse 1968, 38–42, 46–62.
  23. 23. This is an absolutely enormous literature. For a foundational work, see Jensen and Meckling 1976. For helpful overviews, see Arrow 1984; Eisenhardt 1989; Kiser 1999; G. Miller 2005; Shapiro 2005. For a useful critique, see Moe 1984. And, for an early application in international relations, see Downs and Rocke 1994.
  24. 24. For the classic application of principal-agent theory to empire, see J. Adams 1996.
  25. 25. In a few cases, however, these agents are nonstate actors who are entirely independent of government support. When peripheral expansion occurs in these cases, it is less a principal-agent problem than a usurpation of state authority by private citizens. See, e.g., the cases of the United States in Texas (chap. 3) and Germany in East Africa (chap. 7).
  26. 26. Evans 1999, 73–74.
  27. 27. Pollack 1978, 172.
  28. 28. “Hicks Beach to Lord Beaconsfield, November 3, 1878,” quoted in Brendon 2007, 180.
  29. 29. McIntyre 1967, 381; Klein 1998, 77.
  30. 30. Morris 1975, 529–530.
  31. 31. Andrew and Kanya-Forstner 1988, 13.
  32. 32. “Ellenborough to the Queen, Allahabad, June 27, 1843,” in Colchester 1874, 101.
  33. 33. For foundational works, see Holmstrom 1979; Fama and Jensen 1983.
  34. 34. J. Adams 1996, 14–15; Kiser 1999, 146; Hawkins et al. 2006, 26–31.
  35. 35. Moe 1984, 769; Shapiro 2005, 267.
  36. 36. MacKenzie 1967, 272; Porch 1984, 134–135.
  37. 37. For strategic considerations, see M. Barnhart 1987, chap. 1. For economic motives, the German acquisition of South-West Africa is a useful representative case: see Esterhuyse 1968, 38–42, 46–62.
  38. 38. Galbraith 1960.
  39. 39. See Kanya-Forstner 1969, 178; Morris 1975, 535.
  40. 40. Aldrich and Connell 1992, 38.
  41. 41. On civil-military relations as a principal-agent problem, see Avant 1996; Feaver 2003, esp. chap. 3.
  42. 42. The heading for this section is from P. MacDonald 2004.
  43. 43. On the growth of empire by fait accompli, see Landes 1961, 505–506. On faits accomplis and modern territorial expansion, see Altman 2017. See also Tarar 2016.
  44. 44. On territorial expansion and sunk costs, see Taliaferro 2004, 33–35.
  45. 45. For a foundational work in behavioral economics, see Thaler 1980, esp. 47–50. For a discussion in international relations, see C. Miller 2019.
  46. 46. According to standard economic theory, sunk costs should not factor in to rational decision-making. However, this standard argument has faced criticism, as there are many conditions under which it is rational to consider sunk costs. See McAfee, Mialon, and Mialon 2010. In international relations, see C. Miller 2019.
  47. 47. For related arguments, see Hassner 2007; Krause and Eiran 2018.
  48. 48. See, e.g., Kanya-Forstner 1969, 108; Pakenham 2003, 178; W. Weeks 2013, 106.
  49. 49. Landes 1961, 505.
  50. 50. On status as a driver of territorial expansion, see J. Barnhart 2016, 2017. On status as a driver for international aggression more generally, see Dafoe, Renshon, and Huth 2014. For a useful critique, see P. MacDonald and Parent 2021.
  51. 51. On the somewhat-excessive preoccupation with reputation among leaders in international relations, see Mercer 1996, 19–21; D. Press 2005, 158–159; Tang 2005.
  52. 52. This point is similar to Barbara Walter’s (2003) “reputation-building” theory of territorial conflict. In the history of empire, see Landes 1961, 505–506; Morris 1975, 535; Andrew and Kanya-Forstner 1988, 14; Hyam 1999.
  53. 53. Corrado 2014, 77. See also Paine 1996, 38–39.
  54. 54. Wesseling 1996, 295–296.
  55. 55. The “respect” quote is from MacKenzie 1988, 220. The “watching” quote is from “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 69. The “honor” quote is from Porch 1984, 134. See also Galbraith 1963, 239, 240; Pollack 1978, 124; Quinn 2000, 115.
  56. 56. See, e.g., Howe 2007, 103.
  57. 57. In the context of the British Empire, see Pollack 1978, 176–177; Ansari 2005. In the Russian Empire, see MacKenzie 1969, 307–308n86; Paine 1996, 120–121. For a related discussion in the context of the French Empire, see Porch 1984, 181. For an example from the Japanese Empire, see Matsusaka 2001, 384. In the context of American expansion, see Howe 2007, 104.
  58. 58. “Despatch from Glenelg to D’Urban, December 26, 1835 [Extracts],” in Bell 1928, 470–473; Galbraith 1963, 129, 132.
  59. 59. Quinn 2000, 157. See also Kanya-Forstner 1969, 72–83; Power 1977, 78–80.
  60. 60. Meinig 1998, 365–366; Nugent 2008, 261.
  61. 61. See J. Snyder 1991; Kupchan 1994; Taliaferro 2004.
  62. 62. On the importance of counterfactuals to causal explanation, see Fearon 1991; Levy 2008b.
  63. 63. On the different types of case studies, see George and Bennett 2005, 74–76.
  64. 64. Geddes 1990; King, Keohane, and Verba 1994, 128–139.
  65. 65. George and Bennett 2005, chaps. 3, 8.
  66. 66. George and Bennett 2005, chap. 10; Bennett and Checkel 2014.
  67. 67. Levy 2008a, 10–11.
  68. 68. On Israel, see Gorenberg 2006; Krause and Eiran 2018.
  69. 69. On case selection, see: King, Keohane, and Verba 1994, 139–149; Gerring 2001, 163–199; Bennett and Elman 2007, 172–178; George and Bennett 2005, 83–84.
  70. 70. King, Keohane, and Verba 1994, chap. 6; Gerring 2001, 165–171, 181–183.
  71. 71. See the online appendix accompanying this book. (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/JBGNNH)
  72. 72. This is what McAdam, Tarrow, and Tilly (2001, 81–83) refer to as an “uncommon foundations” research strategy. See also Musgrave and Nexon 2018, 604–605.
  73. 73. Gerring 2001, 174–178; George and Bennett 2005, 83–84; Bennett and Elman 2007, 174–175; Levy 2008a, 10–11.
  74. 74. On longitudinal control techniques, see George and Bennett 2005, 166–167, chap. 9; Bennett and Elman 2007, 176.
  75. 75. George and Bennett 2005, 153–166; Bennett and Elman 2007, 174–175; Levy 2008a, 10–11.

2. Patterns of Inadvertent Expansion, 1816–2014

  1. 1. A data codebook accompanying this book includes the full list of observations, brief narratives for each observation, coding justification for key variables, and citations of all the sources relied on.
  2. 2. Territorial Change Data (v5.0). Tir et al. 1998.
  3. 3. This was especially difficult in Russia’s expansion in Central Asia as well as British and French expansion in Africa.
  4. 4. Approximately 80 percent (205/258) of the observations in my data are identifiable in the territorial change data. To some extent, this is likely due to varying inclusion criteria as well as how processes of expansion are either split up into separate observations or combined into single observations. Beyond this, given that the territorial change data cover the entire globe, whereas I focus narrowly on the nine great powers, it perhaps is not surprising that I uncovered a few more observations.
  5. 5. Cases such as the United States’ purchase of Alaska in 1867 are not included on this basis.
  6. 6. Cases such as the Russian conquest of the Caucasus in the nineteenth century are not included on this basis, as the territory had been formally ceded to Russia by Persia in 1828.
  7. 7. Claims of various uninhabited islets and reefs as well as territorial claims in Antarctica are not included on this basis.
  8. 8. Cases such as the joint Anglo-French occupation of the Saar Basin after World War I are not included on this basis.
  9. 9. Cases such as the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 are not included on this basis.
  10. 10. Zakaria (1998, 54–44) includes attempted, as well as considered, expansion in his study, though he is only examining a single great power (the United States) over the course of forty-three years. Dan Altman (2020) has also impressively compiled global conquest data that include attempts, though it only begins in 1918. Given that most inadvertent expansion occurs in the nineteenth century, this is a crucial limitation for the purpose of this book.
  11. 11. Fearon 2002.
  12. 12. I note that it seems at least plausible that cases of inadvertent expansion are more likely than intentional expansion both to fail in the peripheral attempt (due to inadequate planning or resources) and to be rejected by the capital, and, therefore, bias should be against finding cases of inadvertent expansion.
  13. 13. The great powers are defined as follows (modifications are underlined): United States of America (1816–2014), United Kingdom (1816–1945), France (1816–1940), Prussia/Germany (1816–1945), Austria-Hungary (1816–1918), Italy (1860–1943), Russia/Soviet Union (1816–2014), China (1950–2014), Japan (1868–1945). Correlates of War Project. 2017. “State System Membership List, v2016,” available at http://www.correlatesofwar.org/.
  14. 14. This is how Goertz and Diehl (1992, 66–67) operationalize the importance of a given piece of territory.
  15. 15. In wartime, I also include the military high command among those whose orders make an observation “intentional.”
  16. 16. In all but three observations of inadvertent expansion, I rely on either a primary source or at least two secondary sources. In many cases, I draw on considerably more sources in an effort to mitigate the risk of bias in individual historical sources. See Lustick 1996.
  17. 17. G. Snyder 1996.
  18. 18. For a discussion and defense, see Wendt 2004.
  19. 19. As a result, I have coded the vast majority (251/258 or 97 percent), though not the entirety, of the great power expansion observations with respect to whether they were inadvertent or intentional.
  20. 20. Region classification is derived from Ghosn, Palmer, and Bremer 2004.
  21. 21. Territorial Change Data (v5.0), “Territorial Change Coding Manual,” 3, available at https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/territorial-change/; Kohen 2015.
  22. 22. Much of the telegraph data are from Huurdeman 2003, chap. 8, app. A; Bill Glover, “Cable Timeline: 1850–2018,” in History of the Atlantic Cable and Undersea Communications, 2022, available at https://atlantic-cable.com/.
  23. 23. On the importance of the telegraph in imperial history, see P. Kennedy 1971; Headrick 1981, chap. 11.
  24. 24. Distance refers to “Great-Circle” or orthodromic distance, measured in kilometers. It is measured using the “Measure Distance” tool in Google Maps to ensure as accurate a measure between locations as possible. See Google Maps, 2023, available at https://www.google.com/maps.
  25. 25. Elman 1996, 28–29; Schweller 2006, 112–113.
  26. 26. See Alliance Treaty Obligation and Provision data (v5.1). Leeds et al. 2002. Formal Alliances (v4.1). Gibler 2009.
  27. 27. COW War Data (v4.0). Sarkees and Wayman 2010.
  28. 28. Brambor et al. 2020.
  29. 29. Polity5 Annual Time Series Data, 1800–2018. Monty G. Marshall, Ted Robert Gurr, and Keith Jaggers, “Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2018,” Center for Systemic Peace, 2020, available at http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html.
  30. 30. An expanding great power is considered an autocracy when its Polity score is –6 or lower. For the Varieties of Democracy data, see Michael Coppedge et al., “VDem Country-Year Dataset v12,” Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, 2022, available at https://doi.org/10.23696/vdemds22; Daniel Pemstein et al., (2022), “The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data,” V-Dem Working Paper, no. 21. 7th ed. University of Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy Institute.
  31. 31. National Material Capabilities (v6.0). Singer, Bremer, and Stuckey 1972.
  32. 32. See the online appendix accompanying this book for more details on the analyses that follow (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/JBGNNH).
  33. 33. Note, however, that Italy has a failed case of inadvertent expansion (Fiume, 1919–20), which is discussed in depth in chapter 6. China, for its part, has been a regular target of inadvertent expansion (Amur Region in 1850, Ussuri Region in 1852, Manchuria in 1932, and a failed case in the Ili region in 1871–81). The failed case by Russia in the Ili region is discussed in depth in chapter 4.
  34. 34. Note also that controlling for the Asia-Pacific region increases the statistical significance of the coefficient on risk.
  35. 35. These are the United Kingdom in Western Peninsular Malaya (1874), North Borneo (1888), and Togoland (1914); France in Eastern Morocco (1904), Togoland (1914), and Cameroon (1916); and Japan in the Caroline Islands (1914), the Mariana Islands (1914), the Marshall Islands (1914), and Manchuria (1932).
  36. 36. These are the United States in Florida (1818); the United Kingdom in Togoland (1914); France in Togoland (1914) and Cameroon (1916); Russia in the Amur Region (1850) and the Ussuri Region (1850); and Japan in the Caroline Islands (1914), the Mariana Islands (1914), the Marshall Islands (1914), and Manchuria (1932).
  37. 37. These are the United Kingdom in Togoland (1914); France in Togoland (1914) and Cameroon (1916); and Japan in the Caroline Islands (1914), the Mariana Islands (1914), the Marshall Islands (1914), and Manchuria (1932). Note that all but one occur during World War I and onto German territory, suggesting that the “fog of war” may play a periodic role in enabling inadvertent expansion.

3. Inadvertent Expansion in the American South

  1. 1. “Territorial expansion of the United States—land area, by accession: 1790–2000 (Table Cf1),” in Sutch and Carter 2020.
  2. 2. Meinig 1993, 31; Nugent 2008, 111.
  3. 3. “Population: 1790–2000 (Table Aa6–8),” in Sutch and Carter 2020.
  4. 4. Nugent 2008, 117–120; Wood 2009, 686–687.
  5. 5. Nugent 2008, 119; W. Weeks 2013, 95.
  6. 6. W. Weeks 1996, 32.
  7. 7. Dangerfield 1952, 125–126; W. Weeks 1996, 41; Howe 2007, 98.
  8. 8. “Extract of a Letter from General Gaines to Major General Andrew Jackson, Fort Scott, Georgia, November 21, 1817” (686) and “General Gaines to the Secretary of War, Head-Quarters, Fort Scott, Georgia, December 2, 1817” (687), both in Lowrie and Clarke 1832.
  9. 9. “Andrew Jackson to the Secretary of War (John C. Calhoun), Nashville, December 16, 1817,” in Bassett 1927, 340.
  10. 10. This is an estimate based on the fact that news of Jackson’s initial attack on the Fort of St. Marks on April 6, 1818, was first learned in Washington on May 4, 1818. “May 4th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 87.
  11. 11. Howe 2007, 100, 106; W. Weeks 2013, 99.
  12. 12. Emphasis added. “John C. Calhoun to General Edmund P. Gaines, Department of War, December 16, 1817,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 689.
  13. 13. “Andrew Jackson to President Monroe, Head Quarters Southern Division, Nashville, January 6, 1818,” in Bassett 1927, 346.
  14. 14. Dangerfield 1952, 138–139; Ammon 1971, 416; Cunningham 1996, 67.
  15. 15. “John C. Calhoun to Major General Andrew Jackson, Department of War, December 26, 1817,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 690. On Jackson’s receipt, see “Andrew Jackson to Secretary Calhoun, Nashville, January 12, 1818,” in Bassett 1927, 347.
  16. 16. “James Monroe to John C. Calhoun, Washington, D.C., Jany 30, 1818,” in Hemphill 1963, 104; Ammon 1971, 417.
  17. 17. “John C. Calhoun to James Monroe, [Albermarle County, Va], War Dept., 12th September, 1818,” in Hemphill 1967, 120.
  18. 18. “James Monroe to the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States, Washington, March 25, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 183.
  19. 19. “Andrew Jackson to John C. Calhoun, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, Nashville, January 20, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 697.
  20. 20. “Andrew Jackson to John C. Calhoun, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, Fort Early, February 26, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 698.
  21. 21. “Andrew Jackson to the John C. Calhoun, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, Fort Gadsden, March 25, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 698.
  22. 22. Remini 1977, 353; Howe 2007, 100.
  23. 23. Remini 1977, 354.
  24. 24. “Andrew Jackson to John C. Calhoun, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, Camp, Near St. Marks, April 8, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 700.
  25. 25. “General Jackson to F. C. Luengo, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, before St. Mark’s, April 6, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 575.
  26. 26. “Andrew Jackson to John C. Calhoun, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, Bowleg’s Town, Suwaney River, April 20, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 700; Remini 1977, 356.
  27. 27. “Andrew Jackson to Mrs. Jackson, St. Marks, April 8, 1818,” in Bassett 1927, 358; “Jackson to Calhoun, April 8, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 700; Owsley Jr. 1985.
  28. 28. “General Orders, Division of the South, Adjutant General’s Office, Camp Four Miles North of St. Mark’s, April 29, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 595; Remini 1977, 358.
  29. 29. “Andrew Jackson to John C. Calhoun, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, Fort Gadsden, May 5, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 702.
  30. 30. “Andrew Jackson to William Davenport, Ft. Gadsden, Appelachecola, May 4, 1818,” in Bassett 1927, 364–365; “Jackson to Calhoun, May 5, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 702.
  31. 31. “Andrew Jackson to John C. Calhoun, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, Fort Montgomery, June 2, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 708.
  32. 32. “General Jackson to Governor Mazot, Head-Quarters, Division of the South, On the Line of March, May 23, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 568.
  33. 33. “Jackson’s Proclamation on Taking Possession of Pensacola, Pensacola, May 29, 1818,” in Bassett 1927, 374–375.
  34. 34. “Jackson to Calhoun, June 2, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 708.
  35. 35. “Andrew Jackson to President Monroe, Headquarters of the South, Frt Montgomery, June 2, 1818,” in Bassett 1927, 377.
  36. 36. “Jackson to Monroe, June 2, 1818,” in Bassett 1927, 377.
  37. 37. Three lost in battle, one by sickness, two drowning, and one to friendly fire. See “Andrew Jackson to Rachel Jackson, Ft Montgomery, June 2nd 1818,” in Moser, Hoth, and Hoemann 1994, 213.
  38. 38. Dangerfield 1952, 139; Niven 1988, 68; Howe 2007, 103.
  39. 39. “May 4th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 87.
  40. 40. “Don Luis de Onis to the Secretary of State, Bristol, June 17, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 495.
  41. 41. Ammon 1971, 421; Cunningham 1996, 60.
  42. 42. “June 18th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 102.
  43. 43. “July 7th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 108.
  44. 44. “Don Luis de Onis to the Secretary of State, Washington, July 8, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 496.
  45. 45. “James Monroe to James Madison, Little River, Loudoun County, Near Aldie, July 10, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 54.
  46. 46. “July 13th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 107.
  47. 47. Dangerfield 1952, 137–138; W. Weeks 1992, 116; 1996, 44; Howe 2007, 103.
  48. 48. “July 10th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 106.
  49. 49. “July 11th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 106.
  50. 50. Dangerfield 1952, 143.
  51. 51. “Monroe to Jackson, July 19th, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 58.
  52. 52. Ammon 1971, 423; W. Weeks 1996, 45; Howe 2007, 103.
  53. 53. Ammon 1971, 415; Remini 1977, 7–8, 342–343; W. Weeks 1996, 32; Brands 2005, 17, 297.
  54. 54. “July 16th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 109–110.
  55. 55. “July 18th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 113.
  56. 56. “July 18th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 113. See also W. Weeks 1992, 115.
  57. 57. Niven 1988, 70; W. Weeks 1992, 138.
  58. 58. “John C. Calhoun to Charles Tait, Cook’s Law Office, Elbert County, Ga., War Dept., 5th September, 1818,” in Hemphill 1967, 106.
  59. 59. Cunningham 1996, 64.
  60. 60. “James Monroe to James Madison, Washington, February 7th, 1819,” in Hamilton 1902, 88.
  61. 61. “July 15th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 108; “James Monroe to James Madison, Washington, July 20, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 61; “John C. Calhoun to Charles Tait, War Dept 20th July 1818,” in Hemphill 1963, 408; Ammon 1971, 422; Niven 1988, 69, 70.
  62. 62. “July 13th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 107.
  63. 63. “James Monroe to General Jackson, Washington, July 19th, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 57–58.
  64. 64. “July 20th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 113–114. See also Niven 1988, 69.
  65. 65. Niven 1988, 70; W. Weeks 1992, 116; Brands 2005, 340.
  66. 66. “July 21st, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 113. See also W. Weeks 1992, 115.
  67. 67. Ammon 1971, 423; Remini 1977, 367; Niven 1988, 70–71; Howe 2007, 103.
  68. 68. “July 18th, 1818” and “July 21st, 1818,” both in C. Adams 1875, 112, 114–115; Cunningham 1996, 61.
  69. 69. Daily National Intelligencer 1818, 2.
  70. 70. “Monroe to Jackson, July 19th, 1818” and “James Monroe to General Jackson, Washington, October 20, 1818,” both in Hamilton 1902, 55, 74; “President’s Message at the Commencement of the Session, Communicated to Congress, November 17, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 215; “The Secretary of State to Don Luis de Onis, Department of State, Washington, July 23, 1818” and “Secretary of State to Erving, November 28, 1818,” both in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 539, 541.
  71. 71. “Excerpt of a letter from J. C. Calhoun, Secretary of War, to Major General Andrew Jackson, dated, September 8, 1818,” in Lowrie and Clarke 1832, 745; Ammon 1971, 426; Niven 1988, 70–71; Howe 2007, 106.
  72. 72. “James Monroe to Thomas Jefferson, Washington, July 22, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 62.
  73. 73. “James Monroe to General Jackson, Washington, December 21, 1818” (quoted) and “Monroe to Madison, February 7th, 1819,” both in Hamilton 1902, 86, 87–88.
  74. 74. “July 16th, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 110.
  75. 75. W. Weeks 1992, 131.
  76. 76. Howe 2007, 107; Nugent 2008, 128–129.
  77. 77. Perkins 1964, chap. 15; W. Weeks 1992, 131; Nugent 2008, 123.
  78. 78. Perkins 1964, 284; W. Weeks 1996, 48–49; Howe 2007, 106.
  79. 79. “January 7 [1819],” in Rush 1833, 399. See also Dangerfield 1952, 149; Ammon 1971, 428; W. Weeks 1992, 147.
  80. 80. Ammon 1971, 422.
  81. 81. “July 15th, 1818,” “July 16th, 1818,” “July 17th, 1818,” and “July 20th, 1818,” all in C. Adams 1875, 108, 109, 111, 113–114; “Monroe to Jefferson, July 22, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 63; Remini 1977, 366; Niven 1988, 69–70; Cunningham 1996, 61.
  82. 82. “Monroe to Jackson, July 19th, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 57.
  83. 83. W. Weeks 1992, 122.
  84. 84. Cunningham 1996, 64.
  85. 85. “Monroe to Jackson, July 19th, 1818,” in Hamilton 1902, 58.
  86. 86. Daily National Intelligencer 1818, 2.
  87. 87. “Secretary of State to Erving, November 28, 1818,” in Lowrie and Franklin 1834, 542.
  88. 88. Remini 1977, 371.
  89. 89. Cunningham 1996, 66; Howe 2007, 104–106.
  90. 90. “‘Speech on the Seminole War,’ January 20, 1819,” in Hopkins 1961, 659.
  91. 91. W. Weeks 1992, 160.
  92. 92. Remini 1977, 374–375; Howe 2007, 106–107.
  93. 93. Nugent 2008, 127.
  94. 94. “February 22nd, 1818,” in C. Adams 1875, 275.
  95. 95. W. Weeks 1996, 52; Howe 2007, 109.
  96. 96. “James Monroe to Thomas Jefferson, Washington, May 1820,” in Hamilton 1902, 123. See also W. Weeks 2013, 110.
  97. 97. The case of Texas is different from other cases in this book. While in most cases the peripheral agents who engage in conquest and present leaders in the capital with a fait accompli are members of the state apparatus, or at least are the state’s own nationals, in this case they are recent émigrés to a foreign territory. Thus, the idea that unauthorized peripheral expansion is a principal-agent problem does not apply to this case, since there is no real delegation of authority. However, the recency of their emigration, as well as the fact that they were led by American political elites, make this case comparable with the others. And, despite these differences, the case shows that the dynamics of failed inadvertent expansion are broadly similar to other cases.
  98. 98. “Territorial Expansion of the United States,” in Sutch and Carter 2020.
  99. 99. Meinig 1993, 129; Nugent 2008, 136.
  100. 100. Howe 2007, 660; Nugent 2008, 131, 152–153.
  101. 101. Pletcher 1973, 67; W. Weeks 1996, 86–87.
  102. 102. Pletcher 1973, 68; W. Weeks 1996, 87; Nugent 2008, 150–151.
  103. 103. Howe 2007, 661.
  104. 104. Haley 2002, 12–15.
  105. 105. Haley 2002, 87 (quote), 50–61, 64–82, 87–91.
  106. 106. Cole 1993, 134; Herring 2008, 164.
  107. 107. Remini 1984, 352; Meacham 2008, 315.
  108. 108. Remini 1981, 218.
  109. 109. Remini 1981, 202.
  110. 110. Remini 1984, 353; Cole 1993, 131; Brands 2005, 514; Meacham 2008, 316; Maass 2020, 124.
  111. 111. Brands 2005, 514.
  112. 112. Brands 2005, 516; “Andrew Jackson to President Van Buren, Hermitage, January 23, 1838,” in Bassett 1931, 529.
  113. 113. “Andrew Jackson to Colonel Anthony Butler, Washington, February 15, 1841,” in Bassett 1929, 245.
  114. 114. There is a broad historical consensus that the United States played no direct role in the outbreak of the Texas Revolution. See Pletcher 1973, 69; Remini 1984, 360; Cole 1993, 131; Meinig 1993, 141; Howe 2007, 669; Herring 2008, 174; Nugent 2008, 153–154.
  115. 115. Howe 2007, 661.
  116. 116. Nugent 2008, 152.
  117. 117. “Appeal by Stephen F. Austin, New York, April 15, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 398.
  118. 118. Howe 2007, 666, 669; Nugent 2008, 153.
  119. 119. W. Weeks 1996, 87; Howe 2007, 662.
  120. 120. Pletcher 1973, 70.
  121. 121. Cole 1993, 133.
  122. 122. Duckett 1962, 198–200; Pletcher 1973, 72; Remini 1984, 358, 360.
  123. 123. Nugent 2008, 153.
  124. 124. Pletcher 1973, 74.
  125. 125. W. Weeks 2013, 167.
  126. 126. W. Weeks 1996, 89–92.
  127. 127. Doc. 3342: “Powhatan Ellis, United States Chargé d’Affaires at Mexico City, to John Forsyth, Secretary of State of the United States, Mexico, May 19, 1836,” in Manning 1937, 326, 327.
  128. 128. Doc. 3345: “Powhatan Ellis to John Forsyth, [Extract], Mexico, June 25, 1836,” in Manning 1937, 330.
  129. 129. Doc. 3358: “Powhatan Ellis to John Forsyth, Mexico, August 26, 1836” (344), and Doc. 3374: “Powhatan Ellis to John Forsyth, Mexico, October 11, 1836” (369), both in Manning 1937.
  130. 130. Doc. 3346: “Powhatan Ellis to John Forsyth, [Extract], Mexico, June 25, 1836,” in Manning 1937, 331.
  131. 131. Doc. 3353: “Powhatan Ellis to John Forsyth, Mexico, August 3, 1836,” in Manning 1937, 338.
  132. 132. Doc. 3178: “Asbury Dickens, Acting Secretary of State of the United States, to Powhatan Ellis, Washington, August 19, 1836,” in Manning 1937, 56.
  133. 133. Doc. 3379: “Powhatan Ellis to John Forsyth, Mexico, October 26, 1836,” in Manning 1937, 377.
  134. 134. Remini 1984, 357, 362; Cole 1993, 133; Brands 2005, 520; Meacham 2008, 324.
  135. 135. “Jackson’s Seventh Annual Message, December 7, 1835,” in Muller 1917, 1154–1155.
  136. 136. “Appeal by Stephen F. Austin,” in Bassett 1931, 398.
  137. 137. “Andrew Jackson to Governor Newton Cannon, Hermitage, August 6, 1836” (417), “Andrew Jackson to Postmaster General Kendall, Hermitage, August 12, 1836” (420), and “Andrew Jackson to Asbury Dickins, Hermitage, August 17, 1836” (422), all in Bassett 1931; Doc. 3180: “John Forsyth to Manuel Eduardo de Gorostiza, Mexican Minister to the United States, Washington, August 31, 1836,” in Manning 1937, 57.
  138. 138. Duckett 1962, 199; Pletcher 1973, 73; Remini 1984, 364, 367; Cole 1993, 266; Klunder 1996, 91; W. Weeks 1996, 88; 2013, 168; Maass 2020, 127–129.
  139. 139. Remini 1984, 360; Klunder 1996, 91; W. Weeks 1996, 88; Howe 2007, 670; Herring 2008, 175; Nugent 2008, 153–154.
  140. 140. “Jackson’s Eighth Annual Message, Washington, December 5, 1836,” in Muller 1917, 1191.
  141. 141. “Wharton to Austin, Despatch No. 4, Washington City, January 6th 1837,” in Garrison 1908, 169.
  142. 142. For 1834 efforts, see Cole 1993, 132. For 1837 efforts, see Remini 1984, 365; Brands 2005, 526.
  143. 143. See “Andrew Jackson to Maunsel White, Washington, December 2, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 440.
  144. 144. “Wharton to Austin, Despatch No. 1, Washington City, December 22nd 1836” (157–158), “Wharton to Austin, Despatch No. 4, Washington City, January 6th 1837” (169), “Wharton to Austin, Despatch No. 5, Washington City, January 15th 1837” (176), and “Wharton to Rusk, No. 9, Washington City” (191, 193–194), all in Garrison 1908.
  145. 145. W. Weeks 1996, 88; 2013, 168; Nugent 2008, 153–154.
  146. 146. “Lewis Cass to Major General E. P. Gaines, War Department, January 23, 1836,” in Dickins and Forney 1861, 417.
  147. 147. “Edmund P. Gaines to Lewis Cass, Headquarters Western Department, Baton Rouge, March 29, 1836” (417–418) and “Edmund P. Gaines to Lewis Cass, Headquarters Western Department, Natchitoches, Louisiana, April 8, 1836” (419–420), both in Dickins and Forney 1861.
  148. 148. “Lewis Cass to Major General E. P. Gaines, War Department, April 25, 1836,” in Dickins and Forney 1861, 418. See also Klunder 1996, 91.
  149. 149. “Lewis Cass to Major General Gaines, War Department, May 4, 1836” (421) and “Lewis Cass to Major General Gaines, War Department, May 12, 1836” (424, quoted), both in Dickins and Forney 1861.
  150. 150. Pletcher 1973, 71; Remini 1984, 357.
  151. 151. Remini 1984, 362.
  152. 152. “Andrew Jackson to Governor Newton Cannon, Liberty, Tenn., August 3, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 415.
  153. 153. Remini 1984, 362.
  154. 154. Emphasis added. “Andrew Jackson to Postmaster General Kendall, Hermitage, August 12, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 420.
  155. 155. “Andrew Jackson to Brigadier-General Edmund P. Gaines, Hermitage, September 4, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 424.
  156. 156. Doc. 5679: “John Forsyth, Secretary of State of the United States, to Henry M. Morfit, Special Agent of the United States to Texas, Washington, June 23, 1836,” in Manning 1939, 3.
  157. 157. “Secretary Forsyth to Jackson, Private, Washington, July 15, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 413.
  158. 158. Doc. 5767: “Henry M. Morfit, Special Agent of the United States to Texas, to John Forsyth, Secretary of State of the United States, [Extract], Velasco, September 9, 1836,” in Manning 1939, 113.
  159. 159. Doc. 5768: “Henry M. Morfit, Special Agent of the United States to Texas, to John Forsyth, Secretary of State of the United States, Velasco, September 10, 1836,” in Manning 1939, 116.
  160. 160. Emphasis added. “Andrew Jackson to Postmaster General Kendall, Private, Washington, December 8, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 441.
  161. 161. Emphasis added. “Jackson’s Special Message on Texas, Washington, December 21, 1836,” in Muller 1917, 1220, 1222, 1223.
  162. 162. “Republic of Texas Recognized, Washington, March 3, 1837,” in Muller 1917, 1231–1232.
  163. 163. “Hunt to Irion, Despatch No. 29, Texian Legation, Washington City, January 31st, 1838,” in Garrison 1908, 285.
  164. 164. “Andrew Jackson to General Samuel Houston, Hermitage, September 4, 1836,” in Bassett 1931, 425.

4. Inadvertent Expansion on the Eurasian Steppe

  1. 1. Pierce 1960, 18–19, 43.
  2. 2. See Bregel 2009, 401–407.
  3. 3. MacKenzie 1988, 210; Becker 2004, 6–7, 9–10. See also MacKenzie 1969, 289.
  4. 4. MacKenzie 1988, 210.
  5. 5. MacKenzie 1969, 290–291; Becker 2004, 14.
  6. 6. MacKenzie 1988, 212.
  7. 7. Zakharova 2006, 600.
  8. 8. MacKenzie 1974a, 30; Morrison 2014b, 163.
  9. 9. MacKenzie 1974a, xvii–xviii, 1–20, 29–30, 63.
  10. 10. MacKenzie 1974a, 30.
  11. 11. MacKenzie 1969, 291. See also Becker 2004, 17; Morrison 2014a, 173.
  12. 12. Becker 2004, 17; Morrison 2014a, 168.
  13. 13. Morrison 2014a, 175. See also MacKenzie 1974a, 34; Morrison 2021, 219, 225.
  14. 14. MacKenzie 1974a, 33–34.
  15. 15. For Cherniaev’s orders, see Doc. 45: A. O. Diugamel to Mikhail G. Cherniaev, March 12, 1864, in Serebrennikov 1914, 81–82. See also Morrison 2021, 222–223.
  16. 16. MacKenzie 1974a, 36–37; Morrison 2014a, 175–176; 2021, 226–227.
  17. 17. MacKenzie 1974a, 38.
  18. 18. Morrison 2021, 227. See also MacKenzie 1974a, 37.
  19. 19. Pierce 1960, 185–188; Becker 2004, 72–73, 111, 349n46.
  20. 20. MacKenzie 1969, 297; 1988, 221; Becker 2004, 27.
  21. 21. MacKenzie 1969, 290.
  22. 22. For examples, see MacKenzie 1988, 214–215; Sergeev 2013, 114; Morrison 2014b, 154.
  23. 23. d’Encausse 1994, 132–133.
  24. 24. MacKenzie 1974a, 21–22, 29; Becker 2004, 15–18; Morrison 2014b, 155, 161–162.
  25. 25. MacKenzie 1969, 289–290; 1988, 212; d’Encausse 1994, 133; Becker 2004, 20.
  26. 26. MacKenzie 1988, 212.
  27. 27. MacKenzie 1974a, 22.
  28. 28. MacKenzie 1974a, 39.
  29. 29. MacKenzie 1974a, 39–40.
  30. 30. MacKenzie 1969, 292; 1974a, 42.
  31. 31. MacKenzie 1969, 292–293.
  32. 32. MacKenzie 1969, 293; 1974a, 41–42.
  33. 33. MacKenzie 1974a, 42.
  34. 34. MacKenzie 1974a, 43; Morrison 2021, 234.
  35. 35. MacKenzie 1969, 293; Morrison 2021, 233.
  36. 36. MacKenzie 1974a, 43.
  37. 37. MacKenzie 1969, 293.
  38. 38. MacKenzie 1969, 295.
  39. 39. Morrison 2014a, 167; 2021, 219.
  40. 40. MacKenzie 1969, 295.
  41. 41. MacKenzie 1974a, 43; Morrison 2021, 234.
  42. 42. MacKenzie 1988, 212–213. On Alexander II’s personal characteristics, see Seton-Watson 1967, 333; MacKenzie 1988, 212–213; Zakharova 2006, 595.
  43. 43. MacKenzie 1974a, 44.
  44. 44. Pierce 1960, 21; Morrison 2014a, 183; 2021, 236.
  45. 45. Schuyler 1876, 112; MacKenzie 1974a, 45; Morrison 2021, 236.
  46. 46. MacKenzie 1969, 295.
  47. 47. MacKenzie 1974a, 47–48.
  48. 48. MacKenzie 1969, 295.
  49. 49. Morrison 2014a, 184; 2014b, 154.
  50. 50. MacKenzie 1969, 295; 1974a, 46.
  51. 51. See this chapter’s epigraph.
  52. 52. “Gortschakoff, ‘Circular,’ Nov. 21, 1864,” in Causes of the Afghan War 1879, 223, 227.
  53. 53. For the “smokescreen” argument, see Saray 1982, 10. On Gorchakov’s likely sincerity, see Becker 2004, 19–20; Morrison 2021, 217.
  54. 54. MacKenzie 1974a, 52. See also Becker 2004, 26; Morrison 2021, 241.
  55. 55. On Miliutin’s message, see MacKenzie 1974a, 53. See also Morrison 2021, 241. On Gorchakov’s message, see Morrison 2021, 241–242. See also MacKenzie 1969, 297.
  56. 56. d’Encausse 1994, 134; Morrison 2014a, 189.
  57. 57. MacKenzie 1969, 299.
  58. 58. Pierce 1960, 22; Morrison 2021, 243.
  59. 59. Schuyler 1876, 113; Pierce 1960, 22; d’Encausse 1994, 134.
  60. 60. MacKenzie 1969, 299; 1974a, 57.
  61. 61. Schuyler 1876, 114; MacKenzie 1988, 215.
  62. 62. Schuyler 1876, 101; Pierce 1960, 21; MacKenzie 1974a, 57–58.
  63. 63. Schuyler 1876, 115; Pierce 1960, 23; MacKenzie 1974a, xv; 1988, 215.
  64. 64. Schuyler 1876, 104, 115; Pierce 1960, 20–21, 23; MacKenzie 1974a, 59; Morrison 2021, 244, 250.
  65. 65. Morrison 2021, 247. See also MacKenzie 1974a, 51.
  66. 66. MacKenzie 1974a, 68–69; 1988, 216.
  67. 67. MacKenzie 1969, 299.
  68. 68. Van Der Oye 2006, 563–564; Morrison 2014b, 153–154.
  69. 69. Becker 2004, 29.
  70. 70. MacKenzie 1974a, 68.
  71. 71. Morrison 2014a, 185.
  72. 72. MacKenzie 1988, 214; d’Encausse 1994, 149; Bregel 2009, 407. For an interesting analysis of Kokand’s poor battlefield performance, see Lyall 2021, chap. 5.
  73. 73. Saray 1982, 12; Sergeev 2013, 106–107.
  74. 74. Sergeev 2013, 120–121.
  75. 75. MacKenzie 1974a, 60.
  76. 76. Sadaheo 2007, 20–21.
  77. 77. Sergeev 2013, 203–209.
  78. 78. MacKenzie 1969, 310.
  79. 79. MacKenzie 1988, 217.
  80. 80. MacKenzie 1969, 306.
  81. 81. MacKenzie 1974a, 93–94.
  82. 82. MacKenzie 1969, 307n86; 1974a, 90.
  83. 83. Becker 2004, 34.
  84. 84. MacKenzie 1988, 218–219; Bregel 2009, 408.
  85. 85. “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman (1818–1882),” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 68.
  86. 86. Hsü 1965, 2–4.
  87. 87. Pierce 1960, 28; Paine 1996, 112–113.
  88. 88. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 183; Hsü 1965, 22.
  89. 89. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 183–184; Pierce 1960, 28; Hsü 1965, 22–29; Seton-Watson 1967, 444; March 1996, 142; Paine 1996, 110, 118–119.
  90. 90. Pierce 1960, 28; Hsü 1965, 29–30; Paine 1996, 119–120.
  91. 91. MacKenzie 1967, 267; “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 68; Morris 1975, 536–537.
  92. 92. MacKenzie 1967, 268.
  93. 93. MacKenzie 1974b, 171; March 1996, 143; Paine 1996, 121.
  94. 94. Becker 2004, 39–42; Morrison 2021, 282–300 (esp. 283).
  95. 95. Hsü 1965, 53; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 105.
  96. 96. Becker 2004, 72–73, 111, 349n46.
  97. 97. MacKenzie 1967, 268.
  98. 98. “Mr. Schuyler’s Report on Central Asia,” in Papers Relating to the Foreign Relations of the United States 1874.
  99. 99. “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 69.
  100. 100. Hsü 1965, 14.
  101. 101. Paine 1996, 121.
  102. 102. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 184; “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 104; March 1996, 143; Paine 1996, 120–121.
  103. 103. Kaufman quote from Morrison 2021, 206. For Kaufman’s plans, see Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 185; Hsü 1965, 30; March 1996, 143.
  104. 104. Lattimore 1950, 36; Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 185–186; Seton-Watson 1967, 444; “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 104.
  105. 105. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 186; Pierce 1960, 28; Hsü 1965, 30; Seton-Watson 1967, 444; March 1996, 143; Paine 1996, 110, 121.
  106. 106. Hsü 1965, 14, 31; “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 104.
  107. 107. “Mr. Schuyler’s Report on Central Asia,” in Papers Relating to the Foreign Relations of the United States 1874; Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 187; Hsü 1965, 14, 31; “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 104; Paine 1996, 110, 167.
  108. 108. Hsü 1965, 31–32.
  109. 109. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 187.
  110. 110. Hsü 1965, 32; Paine 1996, 121; Morrison 2021, 208.
  111. 111. Lattimore 1950, 36; Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 188; Pierce 1960, 28–29; Hsü 1965, 33; March 1996, 143.
  112. 112. Paine 1996, 121.
  113. 113. Paine 1996, 121; Morrison 2021, 209.
  114. 114. Hsü 1965, 34.
  115. 115. Readers may have heard of General Zuo from the popular North American Chinese cuisine dish, “General Tso’s Chicken,” which was named in his honor. See Coe 2009, 241–243.
  116. 116. Hsü 1965, 35–36; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 105; March 1996, 143–144.
  117. 117. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 188; Hsü 1965, 41–44; Seton-Watson 1967, 444; March 1996, 144; Paine 1996, 123–125.
  118. 118. Morrison 2021, 210. See also Paine 1996, 125.
  119. 119. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 189; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 105; March 1996, 144.
  120. 120. Hsü 1965, 57; Paine 1996, 137–140.
  121. 121. Lattimore 1950, 39; Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 189; Hsü 1965, 51–58; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 103–107; March 1996, 144; Paine 1996, chap. 5.
  122. 122. Lattimore 1950, 39; Hsü 1965, 57; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; March 1996, 144.
  123. 123. Hsü 1965, 60. See also Paine 1996, 112.
  124. 124. Hsü 1965, 1, 69.
  125. 125. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 189; Hsü 1965, 76–77, 80–94; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; Paine 1996, 140, 151.
  126. 126. Hsü 1965, 145–146, 151–152; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; Paine 1996, 152–153.
  127. 127. Hsü 1965, 163–164; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; Paine 1996, 153–154.
  128. 128. Morrison 2021, 209.
  129. 129. Hsü 1965, 155–156; Paine 1996, 154–155. On Alexander II’s reforms, see Seton-Watson 1967, 332–369; Zakharova 2006.
  130. 130. “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, September 4/16, 1879,” “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, 20 September 1879,” and “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, September 25, 1879,” all in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 148–150.
  131. 131. Note that this and all other translations (from French) in this chapter were carried out by the author. “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, September 22, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 111. See also Paine 1996, 154.
  132. 132. “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, September 27, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 151. See also Hsü 1965, 177; Paine 1996, 159.
  133. 133. Hsü 1965, 172.
  134. 134. Hsü 1965, 163–164; Paine 1996, 153–155.
  135. 135. Hsü 1965, 51. Miliutin would still hold these views a full year later. See “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, October 18, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 154.
  136. 136. “Jomini to Giers, Sept. 22, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 111. See also Paine 1996, 154.
  137. 137. “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, October 14, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 153. On this concern, see also “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, October 3, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 117–118.
  138. 138. “Jomini to Giers, Sept. 22, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 111. See also Paine 1996, 154.
  139. 139. “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, September 27, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 151. See also Hsü 1965, 177; Paine 1996, 159.
  140. 140. “Giers to Jomini, Oct. 18, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 154. See also “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, October 25, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 155.
  141. 141. “Giers to Jomini, Oct. 14, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 153.
  142. 142. “Giers to Jomini, Oct. 18, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 154.
  143. 143. Lattimore 1950, 39; Hsü 1965, 7, 9, 155, 171–172, 190; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 25; Paine 1996, 140–141, 143, 151; Morrison 2021, 211.
  144. 144. Hsü 1965, 75–76; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; March 1996, 145.
  145. 145. Hsü 1965, 95–96; Paine 1996, 155.
  146. 146. Hsü 1965, 96–97; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 25.
  147. 147. Hsü 1965, 98–99.
  148. 148. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 190; Hsü 1965, 1–2, 97, 99, 100; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 25; Paine 1996, 155.
  149. 149. Paine 1996, 158–159.
  150. 150. Paine 1996, 160.
  151. 151. March 1996, 145; Paine 1996, 110–111, 163.
  152. 152. Hsü 1965, 97, 99, 157; Paine 1996, 135, 143–144.
  153. 153. Hsü 1965, 180.
  154. 154. “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, 12/24 October 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 121. See also Hsü 1965, 179; Paine 1996, 164.
  155. 155. Paine 1996, 112.
  156. 156. “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, August 24, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 102.
  157. 157. “Jomini to Giers, Oct. 3, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 118.
  158. 158. Clodfelter 2008, 210–211.
  159. 159. Hsü 1965, 51.
  160. 160. Hsü 1965, 157; Paine 1996, 111, 135, 141–145, 151, 155.
  161. 161. “Jomini to Giers, Oct. 3, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 118. See also Hsü 1965, 157.
  162. 162. Hsü 1965, 97–98.
  163. 163. Hsü 1965, 175.
  164. 164. “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, September 10, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 106. See also “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, September 7, 1880” (105) and “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, October 1, 1880” (115), both in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959.
  165. 165. “Jomini to Giers, Sept. 22, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 111.
  166. 166. Emphasis in original. “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, September 23, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 150; Hsü 1965, 173; Paine 1996, 155–156.
  167. 167. Hsü 1965, 173–174.
  168. 168. “N. K. Giers to A. G. Jomini, September 25, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 150. See also “Giers to Jomini, Sept. 23, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 150.
  169. 169. “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, October 3/15, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 118.
  170. 170. “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, October 10, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 121. See also Hsü 1965, 179; Paine 1996, 159.
  171. 171. “Jomini to Giers, Oct. 1, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 116.
  172. 172. “Giers to Jomini, Oct. 25, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 155.
  173. 173. “A. G. Jomini to N. K. Giers, October 22, 1880,” in Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 128.
  174. 174. “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 25.
  175. 175. Hsü 1965, 185.
  176. 176. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 190; Hsü 1965, 187; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 24–26; March 1996, 145; Paine 1996, 161–163.
  177. 177. Lobinov-Rostovsky 1951, 190–191; Hsü 1965, 187; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 106; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 25; March 1996, 145.
  178. 178. Jelavich and Jelavich 1959, 138; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 107; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 26.
  179. 179. Hsü 1965, 18; “Treaty of Livadia,” in Wieczynski 1981, vol. 20, 107; “Saint Petersburg Agreement of 1881,” in Wieczynski 1983, vol. 33, 25.
  180. 180. MacKenzie 1967, 276; March 1996, 145.
  181. 181. MacKenzie 1967, 276–277; “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 71.
  182. 182. “Konstantin Petrovich Kaufman,” in Wieczynski 1980, vol. 16, 71.
  183. 183. MacKenzie 1967, 277.
  184. 184. MacKenzie 1988, 229.

5. Inadvertent Expansion in Southeast Asia

  1. 1. Raymond Betts 1978, 25.
  2. 2. See Aldrich 1996, 76–78; Quinn 2000, 138–141.
  3. 3. Area data from Statistical Yearbook of Viet Nam 2019, 97. Population data are very hard to come by for this period. French imperial actors in 1873 would offhandedly claim that Tonkin contained over 2 million people, but the first official French estimates in 1886 were of 6.2 million. See Gourou 1936, 179; “Francis Garnier to Léon Garnier, Hanoi, November 21, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 717.
  4. 4. Aldrich 1996, 78–80.
  5. 5. Cady 1954, 283; Roberts 1963, 423; McLeod 1991, 101; Osborne 1996, 194–195.
  6. 6. Cady 1954, 283–284; Laffey 1975, 41–42; Osborne 1996, 203–204; Davis 2017, 55–61.
  7. 7. Norman 1884, 98; Cady 1954, 282; Brunschwig 1966, 26; McLeod 1991, 99; Osborne 1995, 53–54, 104.
  8. 8. Norman 1884, 97.
  9. 9. This figure is inferred from the fact that it took eleven days for news of Hanoi’s capture (November 20–December 1, 1873) and thirteen days for news of Garnier’s death (December 21, 1873–January 3, 1874) to reach Saigon from Hanoi. See “Admiral Dupré to the Court of Hué, December 1, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 721; “Marie Jules Dupré to Charles de Dompierre d’Hornoy, Saigon, January 4, 1874,” in Dutreb 1924, 82–83.
  10. 10. Thompson 1937, 62–63; McLeod 1991, 100.
  11. 11. Cady 1954, 284.
  12. 12. “Marie-Jules Dupré to the Minister of the Navy and Colonies, December 22, 1872,” in Dutreb 1924, 15.
  13. 13. “Telegram from Dupré to Paris, May 19, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 694. See also “Marie Jules Dupré to the Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Saigon, March 17, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 24–25.
  14. 14. “The Minister of the Navy and Colonies to Marie Jules Dupré, February 27, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 22.
  15. 15. “Marie Jules Dupré to the Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Saigon, March 17, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 25.
  16. 16. Norman 1884, 93.
  17. 17. “Marie Jules Dupré to Paris, July 28, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 30, 33.
  18. 18. “Dupré to Paris, July 28, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 33, 34.
  19. 19. Dutreb 1924, 35.
  20. 20. “Admiral d’Hornoy, Ministry of Marine and the Colonies to Admiral Dupré [Private Letter], Versailles, September 12, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 699.
  21. 21. “d’Hornoy to Dupré, Sept. 12, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 700.
  22. 22. “Paris to Marie Jules Dupré, Paris, October 22, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 38–39.
  23. 23. Osborne 1996, 199.
  24. 24. McAleavy 1968, 128; Osborne 1996, 199.
  25. 25. “Marie Jules Dupré to Captain Marie Joseph François Garnier, Saigon, October 10, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 50.
  26. 26. Emphasis in original quote from Osborne 1996, 205. See also McAleavy 1968, 128–129; McLeod 1991, 104, 107.
  27. 27. McLeod 1991, 104–105.
  28. 28. Norman 1884, 120.
  29. 29. McAleavy 1968, 128–130; McLeod 1991, 105.
  30. 30. “Garnier to Garnier, Nov. 10, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 712.
  31. 31. Norman 1884, 128; Buttinger 1958, 371–372.
  32. 32. Laffey 1975, 42.
  33. 33. “Extract of Jean Dupuis’ Journal, November 16, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 712.
  34. 34. “Francis Garnier to Léon Garnier, Hanoi, November 19, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 713.
  35. 35. “Garnier to Garnier, Nov. 19, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 714.
  36. 36. For Garnier’s description of the conquest, see “Francis Garnier to Admiral Dupré, Hanoi, December 1, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 715–717. Also Norman 1884, 131–132; McAleavy 1968, 131–133.
  37. 37. McAleavy 1968, 133; Osborne 1996, 207.
  38. 38. Norman 1884, 132–134; Ennis 1936, 197; McLeod 1991, 113.
  39. 39. Norman 1884, 133–135; McLeod 1991, 113–114.
  40. 40. Ennis 1936, 197–198; McAleavy 1968, 134; McLeod 1991, 114.
  41. 41. “Francis Garnier to Admiral Dupré, Nam-Dinh, December 13, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 726.
  42. 42. Norman 1884, 136; Osborne 1996, 207–208. On the Black Flags, see Laffey 1979.
  43. 43. McAleavy 1968, 135; Laffey 1975, 43.
  44. 44. Osborne 1996, 209.
  45. 45. “‘The Engagement of December 21, 1873, According to Jean Dupuis,’ December 21, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 729; McAleavy 1968, 136; Osborne 1996, 209–210; Davis 2017, 64.
  46. 46. “‘The Engagement of December 21,’ Dec. 21, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 729.
  47. 47. “Dupré to Hué, Dec. 1, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 721.
  48. 48. “Dupré to d’Hornoy, Jan. 4, 1874,” in Dutreb 1924, 82-83. See also Thompson 1937, 64; McAleavy 1968, 143; Osborne 1996, 211–212.
  49. 49. Brunschwig 1966, 43.
  50. 50. Thompson 1937, 62–63; Quinn 2000, 143; J. Barnhart 2020, 112–115.
  51. 51. Cady 1954, 289; McLeod 1991, 100.
  52. 52. On concerns over China, see Brocheux and Hémery 2009, 29; Finch 2013, 76. On concerns over Vietnam, see Buttinger 1958, 373.
  53. 53. Stern 1944, 198; Cady 1954, 284; Roberts 1963, 424.
  54. 54. “Dupré to the Minister, Sept. 11, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 35.
  55. 55. “Duke of Broglie to a Colleague in the Navy, September 22, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 40.
  56. 56. “Duke of Broglie, Minister of Foreign Affairs to the Minister of the Marine, Versailles, November 6, 1873,” in Dutreb 1924, 119.
  57. 57. “Garnier to Garnier, Nov. 10, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 712.
  58. 58. “d’Hornoy to Dupré, Sept. 12, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 699.
  59. 59. “d’Hornoy to Dupré, Sept. 12, 1873,” in Taboulet 1956, 700.
  60. 60. Cady 1954, 287; Roberts 1963, 424; Quinn 2000, 143; Brocheux and Hémery 2009, 29.
  61. 61. “Charles de Dompierre d’Hornoy to Marie Jules Dupré, January 7, 1874,” in Dutreb 1924, 98.
  62. 62. Norman 1884, 145; McAleavy 1968, 144.
  63. 63. “The Treaty of March 15, 1874,” in Taboulet 1956, 743–747.
  64. 64. Cady 1954, 288.
  65. 65. Munholland 1979, 84.
  66. 66. Finch 2013, 77.
  67. 67. Cady 1954, 288.
  68. 68. Norman 1884, 171, 180; Ennis 1936, 46; Eastman 1967, 44–45; Munholland 1979, 85–86, 91.
  69. 69. Roberts 1963, 425; Eastman 1967, 46.
  70. 70. Power 1977, 157n20.
  71. 71. Taboulet 1956, 766, 769n1; McAleavy 1968, 189–190; Raymond Betts 1978, 26.
  72. 72. Ennis 1936, 47n28; Taboulet 1956, 766, 770; Raymond Betts 1978, 26.
  73. 73. This figure is inferred from the fact that it took six days for news of Hanoi’s capture (April 25–May 1, 1882) and of Rivière’s death (May 20–26, 1883) to reach Saigon from Hanoi. See no. 107: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of Cochinchina, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies (Telegram), Saigon, May 1, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 211; No. 199: “Mr. Thomson, Governor of French Cochinchina, to Mr. Charles Brun, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, (Telegram), Saigon, May 26, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 117.
  74. 74. Munholland 1979, 87–88.
  75. 75. Norman 1884, 174; Power 1977, 157; Munholland 1979, 91.
  76. 76. No. 93, Annex: “Admiral Cloué, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, to Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, Paris, September __, 1881,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 190–191.
  77. 77. “Charles-Marie Le Myre de Vilers to the Minister of Commerce and the Colonies, Maurice Rouvier, Saigon, December 21, 1881,” in Taboulet 1956, 763.
  78. 78. No. 99: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, to Mr. Rouvier, Minister of Commerce and the Colonies (Telegram), Saigon, January 16, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 198.
  79. 79. Eastman 1967, 49–50; McAleavy 1968, 190.
  80. 80. “The Governor of Cochinchina, Le Myre de Vilers, to Mr. Henri Laurent Rivière, Saigon, January 17, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 767.
  81. 81. “Le Myre de Vilers to Rivière, Jan. 17, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 768.
  82. 82. No. 102: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, to Mr. Rouvier, Minister of Commerce and the Colonies, Saigon, January 18, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 201.
  83. 83. “Le Myre de Vilers to Rivière, Jan. 17, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 768.
  84. 84. Taboulet 1956, 765; Munholland 1979, 94.
  85. 85. No. 104: “Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy, to Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of Cochinchina, Paris, March 4, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 206.
  86. 86. No. 105: “Mr. de Freycinet, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and the Colonies, Paris, March 16, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 208.
  87. 87. Taboulet 1956, 766; Eastman 1967, 50; McAleavy 1968, 190.
  88. 88. No. 111, Annex I: “Captain Rivière, Head of the Division, Commander of the Cochinchina Naval Station in Hanoi, to Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina in Saigon, Hanoi, April 10–18, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 218.
  89. 89. No. 111, Annex I: “Rivière to Le Myre de Vilers, Apr. 10–18, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 219–221.
  90. 90. Norman 1884, 197; McAleavy 1968, 191.
  91. 91. No. 111, Annex I: “Rivière to Le Myre de Vilers, Apr. 10–18, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 222–223.
  92. 92. Maurceley 1884, 197; McAleavy 1968, 191.
  93. 93. “The Ultimatum from Commander Rivière to the Governor of Hanoi (April 25, 1882),” in Taboulet 1956, 770–771.
  94. 94. No. 118, Annex I: “Mr. Rivière, Division Chief, Captain of the Naval Station at Cochinchina, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Hanoi, April 27 and May 13, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 247.
  95. 95. For detailed accounts of the assault, see no. 116, Annex I: “Mr. Rivière, Division Chief, Commander of the Naval Station, to Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, Hanoi, April 25, 1882” (241–242) and no. 118, Annex I: “Rivière to Jauréguiberry, Apr. 27 and May 13, 1882” (246–250) both in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1; “Report from Commander Berthe de Villers to Brigadier General and Commander of Troops in Saigon, Hanoi, May 3, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 774–776.
  96. 96. No. 118, Annex I: “Rivière to Jauréguiberry, Apr. 27 and May 13, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 250.
  97. 97. No. 116, Annex I: “Rivière to Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Apr. 25, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 241, 242.
  98. 98. No. 118, Annex I: “Rivière to Jauréguiberry, Apr. 27 and May 13, 1882” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 246.
  99. 99. No. 7: “Commander Rivière to the Inhabitants of Hanoi—Hanoi, April 26, 1882,” in Masson 1933, 74–75.
  100. 100. “Commander Rivière to the Head of Justice (Quan-An) of Hanoi, Hanoi, April 29, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 778; McAleavy 1968, 191.
  101. 101. “Rivière, May 2, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 779.
  102. 102. No. 111: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of Cochinchina, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Saigon, April 27, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 216.
  103. 103. Taboulet 1956, 780; McAleavy 1968, 191.
  104. 104. No. 11: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of Cochinchina, to Commander Rivière—Saigon, May 2, 1882,” in Masson 1933, 92.
  105. 105. No. 107: “Le Myre de Vilers to Jauréguiberry, May 1, 1882” (211) and no. 116: “Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, in Paris, Saigon, May 2, 1882” (240–241), both in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1.
  106. 106. No. 15: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of Cochinchina, to Commander Rivière—Saigon, May 23, 1882,” in Masson 1933, 105–107.
  107. 107. No. 117: “Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, to Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, Paris, June 20, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 244. See also Maurceley 1884, 142.
  108. 108. Thompson 1937, 66; Taboulet 1956, 780; Munholland 1979, 95.
  109. 109. No. 112: “Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, in Paris, Saigon, May 5, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 227.
  110. 110. No. 119: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of Cochinchina, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Saigon, May 22, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 257.
  111. 111. “Le Myre de Vilers to Commander Rivière, Saigon, July 27, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 783.
  112. 112. “Commander Rivière to Madame de Caillavet, Hanoi, July 17, 1882,” in Taboulet 1956, 782–783.
  113. 113. Norman 1884, 203; Taboulet 1956, 781, 786–787; Munholland 1979, 99–100.
  114. 114. No. 74: “Commandant Rivière to Mr. Rheinart, Chargé d’Affaires of France at Hué—Hanoi, March 14, 1883” (192) and no. 76: “Commander Rivière to Mr. Thomson, Governor of Cochinchina—Hanoi, March 17, 1883” (198, 199), both in Masson 1933. See also Taboulet 1956, 787.
  115. 115. No. 74: “Rivière to Rheinart, Mar. 14, 1883” (191 [quoted], 192) and no. 78: “Commander Rivière to Mr. Thomson, Governor of Cochinchina—Hanoi, March 17, 1883” (202–203), both in Masson 1933.
  116. 116. No. 80: “Commander Rivière to Mr. Thomson, Governor of Cochinchina—Hanoi, March 19, 1883,” in Masson 1933, 208.
  117. 117. Norman 1884, 204–206; Taboulet 1956, 787–788; Eastman 1967, 68; McAleavy 1968, 200.
  118. 118. “Commander Rivière to Mr. Thomson, Governor of Cochinchina—Nam-Dinh, March 27, 1883,” in Masson 1933, 212.
  119. 119. “Commander Rivière to Madame de Caillavet, Hanoi, May 8, 1883,” in Taboulet 1956, 794.
  120. 120. No. 182: “Mr. Thomson, Governor of French Cochinchina, to Mr. Charles Brun, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, (Telegram), Saigon, April 26, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 93; Norman 1884, 207.
  121. 121. Norman 1884, 208–209; Taboulet 1956, 792.
  122. 122. Norman 1884, 210–212; McAleavy 1968, 203; Davis 2017, 85, 87.
  123. 123. No. 226, Annex I: “Commander Rivière to Mr. Thomson, Governor of French Cochinchina, Hanoi, May 16, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 156.
  124. 124. No. 199: “Thomson to Brun, May 26, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 117; Norman 1884, 216.
  125. 125. Taboulet 1956, 792.
  126. 126. No. 199: “Thomson to Brun, May 26, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 117.
  127. 127. “The Consul of France in Haiphong, Forestier, to Thomson, Governor of Cochinchina, May 20, 1883,” in Taboulet 1956, 796, also 792–793; McAleavy 1968, 204.
  128. 128. Billot 1888, 34; Krakowski 1932, 298.
  129. 129. Billot 1888, 34–35.
  130. 130. See Cady 1954, 294; Power 1977, 159, 161, 193; Andrew and Kanya-Forstner 1988, 19. On status and French imperial expansion more generally, see J. Barnhart 2020, 111–122.
  131. 131. No. 125: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of French Cochinchina, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Saigon, June 11, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 277–278.
  132. 132. Munholland 1979, 97.
  133. 133. No. 134: “Jauréguiberry to Duclerc, Oct. 15, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 304.
  134. 134. No. 163: “Mr. de Mahy, Interim Minister of the Navy and Colonies, to Mr. Jules Ferry, Interim Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paris, February 20, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 64.
  135. 135. Taboulet 1956, 787.
  136. 136. Power 1977, 164, 177–179.
  137. 137. Eastman 1967, 40.
  138. 138. Norman 1884, 177–178.
  139. 139. No. 70: “Mr. Freycinet, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Paris, July 26, 1880,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 156–157.
  140. 140. “Le Myre de Vilers to Rouvier, Dec. 21, 1881,” in Taboulet 1956, 763.
  141. 141. No. 103: “Jauréguiberry to Freycinet, Mar. 4, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 205–206.
  142. 142. Thompson 1937, 66; Power 1977, 159.
  143. 143. No. 119: “Le Myre de Vilers to Jauréguiberry, May 22, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 256.
  144. 144. No. 129, Annex: “Mr. Le Myre de Vilers, Governor of Cochinchina, to Mr. Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, Saigon, July 19, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 296–297.
  145. 145. No. 129: “Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, to Mr. Duclerc, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paris, September 12, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 296.
  146. 146. No. 131: “Mr. Duclerc, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and the Colonies, Paris, September 26, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 299, 300. See also no. 132: “Mr. Duclerc, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Mr. Bourée, Minister of France in China, Paris, September 29, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 302.
  147. 147. Eastman 1967, 57–59; McAleavy 1968, 196; Munholland 1979, 100.
  148. 148. No. 140: “Mr. Bourée, Minister of France in China, to Mr. Duclerc, Minister of Foreign Affairs in Paris, (Telegram), Shanghai, December 5, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 318.
  149. 149. Note that this letter only arrived in Paris in late December 1882. No. 142: “Mr. Bourée, Minister of France in China, to Mr. Duclerc, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peking, October 21, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 322.
  150. 150. No. 137: “Admiral Jauréguiberry, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, to Mr. Duclerc, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paris, October 31, 1882,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 1, 311.
  151. 151. Journal officiel de la République francaise 1883, 292, 293.
  152. 152. No. 168: “Mr. Challemel Lacour, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Mr. Bourée, Minister of France to China, Paris, March 14, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 72.
  153. 153. No. 183, Annex: “Exposé of Reasons,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 96.
  154. 154. Norman 1884, 217–218; Eastman 1967, 72–73; Power 1977, 164; Munholland 1979, 104.
  155. 155. No. 199: “Thomson to Brun, May 26, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 117.
  156. 156. Norman 1884, 218. See also McAleavy 1968, 206; Power 1977, 164; Eastman 1967, 73.
  157. 157. No. 193: “Mr. Challemel Lacour, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Mr. Tricou, Special Envoy of France in China, (Telegram), Paris, May 15, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 112, 113.
  158. 158. No. 197: “Mr. Challamel Lacour, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Mr. Tricou, Special Envoy of France in China, Paris, May 18, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 115.
  159. 159. No. 215: “Mr. Tricou, Special Envoy of France in China, to Mr. Challemel Lacour, Minister of Foreign Affairs, (Telegram), Shanghai, June 18, 1883” (139) and no. 236: “Mr. Tricou, Special Envoy of France in China, to Mr. Challemel Lacour, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shang-hai, June 22, 1883” (179), both in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2.
  160. 160. No. 225: “Mr. Tricou, Special Envoy of France in China, to Mr. Challemel Lacour, Minister of Foreign Affairs, (Telegram), Shanghai, July 5, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 153–154.
  161. 161. No. 218: “A Conversation of Marquis Tseng, Minister of China in Paris, with Mr. Jules Ferry, President of the Council, Minister, Interim Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paris, June 21, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 142.
  162. 162. No. 221: “Mr. Jules Ferry, President of the Council, Charge, Interim Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Mr. Tricou, Special Envoy of France to China, in Shanghai, (Telegram), June 22, 1883, 9:30 p.m.,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 149.
  163. 163. Norman 1884, 221; Ennis 1936, 48; McAleavy 1968, 211–212; Power 1977, 164.
  164. 164. No. 231: “Mr. Charles Brun, Minister of the Navy and Colonies, to Mr. Harmand, Commissioner General to Tonkin, (Telegram), Paris, July 19, 1883,” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 169.
  165. 165. For a detailed description, see “Pierre Loti at the bombardment of the forts of Thuan-An (August 18–21, 1883),” in Taboulet 1956, 803–805. See also Norman 1884, 232–233; McAleavy 1968, 213.
  166. 166. No. 253: “Mr. Harmand, Commissioner General of the Republic in Tonkin, to the Ministers of the Navy and of Foreign Affairs, in Paris, (Telegram), Tuan-An, August 25, [1883],” in Documents Diplomatiques 1883, vol. 2, 201. For the complete text, see Taboulet 1956, 807–809.
  167. 167. Power 1977, 190; Munholland 1979, 106.
  168. 168. Clodfelter 2008, 257.

6. The Dilemma of Inadvertent Expansion

  1. 1. This phrase is from Bosworth 1979.
  2. 2. See J. Snyder 1991, 56–58.
  3. 3. On the South Manchuria Railway, see Myers 1989.
  4. 4. Coox 1985, 1.
  5. 5. Hata and Coox 1989, 291.
  6. 6. Hata and Coox 1989, 285–286.
  7. 7. See Coox 1989.
  8. 8. Coox 1985, 27 (table 2.1).
  9. 9. Note that this and other names in this chapter are listed according to Japanese tradition, with the family name preceding the given name.
  10. 10. Seki 1984, 143. See also Peattie 1975, 21.
  11. 11. Peattie 1975, 23–25.
  12. 12. Peattie 1975, 37–83; Seki 1984, 148–149.
  13. 13. On the comparison between these two individuals, see Yoshihashi 1963, 42–43, 134–143; Peattie 1975, 95; Seki 1984, 139; Hata and Coox 1989, 294.
  14. 14. Ishiwara and Itagaki did not act on their own. At least twenty-six officers are believed to have participated in planning for the invasion or knew of it in advance. See Weland 1994, 446.
  15. 15. Bix 2001, 207–208.
  16. 16. Japan did have a Colonial Ministry, established in 1929, though it was a weak institution with little real influence on foreign or imperial policy. And, in any case, Prime Minister Wakatsuki held the post of colonial minister when the invasion of Manchuria was launched in September 1931. The Ministry of Colonial Affairs would be abandoned after the outbreak of the Pacific War in 1942. See Peattie 1989a, 244.
  17. 17. Yoshihashi 1963, 45–56; Ogata 1984, 11–17.
  18. 18. Peattie 1975, 106; Coox 1985, 27.
  19. 19. Weland 1977, chap. 9.
  20. 20. Crowley 1966, 115; Iriye 1989, 731; J. Snyder 1991, 135; Drea 2009, 65.
  21. 21. Colegrove 1936, 916–917.
  22. 22. O’Dwyer 2017, 4. See also Peattie 1989b, 188–189.
  23. 23. The South Manchuria Railway’s research division would prove invaluable for Ishiwara and Itagaki’s planning for the invasion of Manchuria. See Myers 1989, 125. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 138–139; Seki 1984, 153–154.
  24. 24. Crowley 1966, 102; Ogata 1984, 7–9; Hata and Coox 1989, 284; Hattori 2021, 3, 115.
  25. 25. “July 30, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 14–15. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 149; Seki 1984, 173, 176, 202–203; Beasley 1987, 181.
  26. 26. “August 27, 1931” (42) and “September 23, 1931” (65–66), both in Harada and Saionji 1978. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 58, 154; Ogata 1984, 58; Seki 1984, 202.
  27. 27. Matsusaka 1996, 102n15.
  28. 28. Crowley 1966, 114.
  29. 29. Hata and Coox 1989, 293.
  30. 30. Peattie 1975, 111–112; Ogata 1984, 16; Nish 2002, 76.
  31. 31. Nish 1993, 25–27.
  32. 32. Crowley 1966, 112; Peattie 1975, 51–52; M. Barnhart 1987, 27, 29.
  33. 33. Peattie 1975, 97.
  34. 34. The Kwantung Leased Territory totaled 3,461 km2, and the South Manchuria Railway Zone totaled 233 km2. See Duus 1996, xiii; Myers 1989, 109.
  35. 35. Peattie 1975, 100–101.
  36. 36. Yoshihashi 1963, 138; Peattie 1975, 102–106; Coox 1989, 401.
  37. 37. Peattie 1975, 106; Seki 1984, 144; Coox 1985, 26–27.
  38. 38. Ishiwara discussed this during his testimony at the Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal. See International Military Tribunal for the Far East 1947, 22112–22114. See also Peattie 1975, 106; Coox 1985, 27.
  39. 39. Peattie 1975, 112.
  40. 40. “August 21, 1931” (39), “August 27, 1931” (40, 42, 43, 47), and “September 14, 1931” (54–55), all in Harada and Saionji 1978. See also Ogata 1984, 57.
  41. 41. Seki 1984, 189.
  42. 42. Seki 1984, 201.
  43. 43. “September 23, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 65–67.
  44. 44. Bix 2001, 231.
  45. 45. Seki 1984, 205.
  46. 46. Bix 2001, 232. See also Seki 1984, 205.
  47. 47. Yoshihashi 1963, 152n4, 156–157.
  48. 48. The extent to which Tatekawa may have been aware of the plot is not entirely known. See Yoshihashi 1963, 159; Ogata 1984, 59; Seki 1984, 227.
  49. 49. On the differences between Kwantung Army claims and the truth that would ultimately come out after the Pacific War, see Coox 1985, 30–32.
  50. 50. Seki 1984, 217, 222; Coox 1985, 30, 32; Nish 1993, 23; 2002, 75.
  51. 51. Yoshihashi 1963, 170.
  52. 52. “September 23, 1931” (76–78) and “September 28, 1931” (90–91), both in Harada and Saionji 1978. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 8–9; Crowley 1966, 123; Shimada 1984, 246; Hata and Coox 1989, 296; Hattori 2021, 204.
  53. 53. Yoshihashi 1963, 6–7.
  54. 54. “September 23, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 76. See also Crowley 1966, 123–124; Ogata 1984, 60–61; Coox 1985, 34.
  55. 55. “October 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 125.
  56. 56. “September 23, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 78.
  57. 57. Crowley 1966, 111; Kupchan 1994, 301.
  58. 58. Yoshihashi 1963, 127; Coox 1989, 422; Nish 2002, 71–72.
  59. 59. Crowley 1966, 128; Ogata 1984, 54.
  60. 60. Peattie 1975, 98; Ogata 1984, 110.
  61. 61. M. Barnhart 1987, 33.
  62. 62. On Wakatsuki, see Nish 1993, 46; 2002, 76. On Shidehara, see Crowley 1966, 141. On Minami, see Shimada 1984, 263–264.
  63. 63. “September 23, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 76. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 6–7.
  64. 64. Mizoguchi 1989, 10.
  65. 65. “October 11, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 106–107.
  66. 66. “October 11, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 112–113. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 210–211.
  67. 67. On Shidehara, see Crowley 1966, 141. On Hirohito, see “October 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 147; Bix 2001, 245. On the General Staff, see Ogata 1984, 131, 177. Such concerns were also shared by the finance minister: “November 17, 1931,” in Kido 1984, 15.
  68. 68. Peattie 1975, 133; Ogata 1984, 117; Jansen 2000, 584.
  69. 69. Coox 1985, 44.
  70. 70. Coox 1985, 31.
  71. 71. Coox 1985, 32.
  72. 72. Yoshihashi 1963, 179–180.
  73. 73. Ogata 1984, 111; Shimada 1984, 283; Coox 1985, 41.
  74. 74. Young 1998, 106.
  75. 75. “October 2, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 101–102.
  76. 76. Bridges 1980; Lozhkina, Shulatov, and Cherevko 2019, 219–225; Tobe 2019, 201–204.
  77. 77. Ogata 1984, 179; Hata and Coox 1989, 296.
  78. 78. On the United States, see Doc. 6: “Memorandum by the Secretary of State. [Washington,] September 22, 1931” and Doc. 9: “The Secretary of State to the Minister in China (Johnson) [Paraphrase], Washington, September 24, 1931—6 p.m.,” both in Fuller 1943. On the United Kingdom, see Nish 1993, 36–37.
  79. 79. Beasley 1987, 198.
  80. 80. Matsusaka 2001, 384.
  81. 81. “November 7, 1931” (13) and “November 17, 1931” (15), both in Kido 1984.
  82. 82. Young 1996, 72–79. See also Ogata 1984, 105, 146; Beasley 1987, 193; Nish 1993, 35.
  83. 83. Beasley 1987, 190.
  84. 84. “July 13, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 1; Ogata 1984, 48, 56; Seki 1984, 154, 169; Hata and Coox 1989, 292.
  85. 85. Yoshihashi 1963, 132–133; “July 30, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 13.
  86. 86. Seki 1984, 170–172, 180–184; Ogata 1984, 38–40.
  87. 87. Coox 1985, 58–59; Jansen 2000, 587.
  88. 88. Peattie 1975, 123; Ogata 1984, 65; Hata and Coox 1989, 295.
  89. 89. Ogata 1984, 67; Shimada 1984, 261.
  90. 90. Young 1996, 95.
  91. 91. Nish 1993, 39–40.
  92. 92. Seki 1984, 178.
  93. 93. Crowley 1966, 169; Nish 1993, 74.
  94. 94. Nish 2002, 79.
  95. 95. On the March 1931 coup plot, see “August 8, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 22, 24–26, 30–31. On the October 1931 coup plot, see “October 17, 1931,” in Kido 1984, 10; “October 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 127.
  96. 96. Yoshihashi 1963, 95–102; Ogata 1984, 30–31.
  97. 97. “October 2, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 103.
  98. 98. “January 21, 1932” (28), “January 30, 1932” (30), “January 31, 1932” (30–31), “February 10, 1932” (36), “February 19, 1932” (40), and “March 9, 1932” (45–46), all in Kido 1984; “February 29, 1932,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 267. See also Crowley 1966, 82–83; Ogata 1984, 100; Shimada 1984, 279.
  99. 99. Coox 1985, 24; Hattori 2021, 201.
  100. 100. “August 27, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 48.
  101. 101. “October 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 127; “October 20, 1931,” in Kido 1984, 10–11; Ogata 1984, 95; Hattori 2021, 210.
  102. 102. “May (3), 1932,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 337–338; “May 15, 1932,” in Kido 1984, 52. See also Nish 2002, 85.
  103. 103. Emperor Hirohito himself was the target of an assassination attempt in January 1932, though in this case the perpetrator was a Korean independence activist. Among others targeted or killed were the Japanese consul general in Mukden, the Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal, the former finance minister and Bank of Japan governor, and a member of Japan’s delegation to the League of Nations. See “October 2, 1931” (97), “October 24, 1931” (130), “November 19, 1931” (176), “January 26, 1932” (223), and “March 10, 1932” (281), all in Harada and Saionji 1978; “January 8, 1932” (24), “February 9, 1932” (36), “March 5, 1932” (44), and “May 15, 1932” (51–52), all in Kido 1984.
  104. 104. Shimada 1984, 280. See also “March 3, 1932,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 275.
  105. 105. Ishiwara referred to these rumors in his testimony at the Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal. See International Military Tribunal for the Far East 1947, 22117.
  106. 106. Peattie 1975, 128. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 210; Ogata 1984, 93.
  107. 107. Ogata 1984, 94, 97.
  108. 108. Coox 1985, 48.
  109. 109. Bix 2001, 236–237. See also “October 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 140.
  110. 110. “October 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 117. See also Yoshihashi 1963, 193; “October 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 116.
  111. 111. Nish 1993, 47.
  112. 112. “December 21, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 194–195; “December 11, 1931,” in Kido 1984, 19.
  113. 113. Peattie 1975, 132–133; Iriye 1984, 237–238; Ogata 1984, 138.
  114. 114. “February 16, 1932,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 246–247; “February 5, 1932,” in Kido 1984, 34. See also Nish 1993, 70.
  115. 115. “December 24, 1931,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 199. See also Crowley 1966, 150; “December 12, 1931,” in Kido 1984, 20.
  116. 116. Bix 2001, 246.
  117. 117. Ogata 1984, 150.
  118. 118. Beasley 1987, 193.
  119. 119. Matsusaka 1996, 105.
  120. 120. “March 16, 1932,” in Harada and Saionji 1978, 286–287. See also Ogata 1984, 138; Nish 1993, 88; Bix 2001, 249.
  121. 121. Peattie 1975, xviii, 139; Coox 1985, 56.
  122. 122. Peattie 1975, 122–123.
  123. 123. J. MacDonald 1921, 175.
  124. 124. Ledeen 1977, 17.
  125. 125. Rusinow 1969, 124.
  126. 126. Clodfelter 2008, 461–462.
  127. 127. MacMillan 2001, chap. 22.
  128. 128. Wilson 2023.
  129. 129. With Suzak included, the area was approximately 45 percent Slavic and 40 percent Italian. And 36 percent of the population was affiliated with the party advocating annexation to Yugoslavia, 34 percent affiliated with the party advocating annexation to Italy, and 30 percent advocating autonomy and independence. J. MacDonald 1921, 35–37.
  130. 130. Ledeen 1977, 40; D. Smith 1997, 282, 291; MacMillan 2001, 280.
  131. 131. D. Smith 1997, 282–288; Pearce 2009, 27.
  132. 132. J. MacDonald 1921, chap. 4; Rusinow 1969, 125–128; Ledeen 1977, 34.
  133. 133. MacMillan 2001, 296.
  134. 134. Hughes-Hallett 2013, 402–403.
  135. 135. Rusinow 1969, 133.
  136. 136. MacMillan 2001, 294–295; Pearce 2009, 25.
  137. 137. Ledeen 1977, 7; MacMillan 2001, 294–295.
  138. 138. Ledeen 1977, 6, 12; Bonadeo 1995; Pearce 2009, 26–27.
  139. 139. Hughes-Hallett 2013, 402.
  140. 140. Ledeen 1977, 48.
  141. 141. Ledeen 1977, 61; Gumbrecht 1996, 263.
  142. 142. Rusinow 1969, 135; Ledeen 1977, 73.
  143. 143. MacMillan 2001, 300.
  144. 144. Labanca 2021.
  145. 145. Labanca 2021.
  146. 146. See article 5 in Albert, Lindsay, and Rowe 1894, 27.
  147. 147. Labanca 2021.
  148. 148. Gooch 2007, 13–15.
  149. 149. Ledeen 1977, 65; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 407–408.
  150. 150. J. MacDonald 1921, 56; Rusinow 1969, 133; Ledeen 1977, 65–66.
  151. 151. Hughes-Hallett 2013, 408.
  152. 152. Gumbrecht 1996, 264.
  153. 153. Rusinow 1969, 134, 139.
  154. 154. Ledeen 1977, 66.
  155. 155. J. MacDonald 1921, 95–96.
  156. 156. J. MacDonald 1921, 92; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 413.
  157. 157. Ledeen 1977, 69–71.
  158. 158. Ledeen 1977, 73; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 417.
  159. 159. Rusinow 1969, 135–136.
  160. 160. J. MacDonald 1921, 103–104; Ledeen 1977, 77.
  161. 161. Ledeen 1977, 91–92; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 429.
  162. 162. J. MacDonald 1921, 102–103, 122; Ledeen 1977, 79.
  163. 163. Ledeen 1977, 77.
  164. 164. Ledeen 1977, 51–52, 76–77; MacMillan 2001, 296.
  165. 165. On Wilson’s position, see Doc. 13: “Notes of a Meeting of the Heads of Delegations of the Five Great Powers Held in M. Clemenceau’s Office at the Ministry of War, Monday Afternoon, September 15, 1919, at 4 p.m., Paris, September 15, 1919, 11 a.m.” in Fuller 1946a. For the joint memorandum, see US Department of State 1920, 2.
  166. 166. Doc. 42: “Secretary’s Notes of a Conference Held at 10, Downing Street, London, S. W. 1. on Friday, December 12, 1919, at 11:30 a.m.,” in Fuller 1946b.
  167. 167. Ledeen 1977, 131.
  168. 168. Burgwyn 1997, 14.
  169. 169. Ledeen 1977, 15–16, 131; MacMillan 2001, 300.
  170. 170. Hughes-Hallett 2013, 426.
  171. 171. J. MacDonald 1921, 106; Rusinow 1969, 139.
  172. 172. Gumbrecht 1996, 265.
  173. 173. MacMillan 2001, 293.
  174. 174. Mondini 2006, 452–453. See also Ledeen 1977, 46.
  175. 175. MacMillan 2001, 303.
  176. 176. Rusinow 1969, 142.
  177. 177. Rusinow 1969, 136; Ledeen 1977, 16; MacMillan 2001, 303.
  178. 178. Hughes-Hallett 2013, 417.
  179. 179. J. MacDonald 1921, 113; MacMillan 2001, 302–303; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 435.
  180. 180. Rusinow 1969, 137; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 424.
  181. 181. Ledeen 1977, 101–102.
  182. 182. J. MacDonald 1921, 121, 151.
  183. 183. Peterson 2004.
  184. 184. Sforza 1938, 269.
  185. 185. Bonadeo 1995, 134; D. Smith 1997, 285–287; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 437–438.
  186. 186. Rusinow 1969, 137.
  187. 187. Hughes-Hallett 2013, 463.
  188. 188. Rusinow 1969, 147; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 471.
  189. 189. Rusinow 1969, 149–152; Bonadeo 1995, 140; Hughes-Hallett 2013, 475–480.
  190. 190. Hughes-Hallett 2013, 479–480.
  191. 191. Gumbrecht 1996.
  192. 192. Pearce 2009, 29.

7. Inadvertent Annexation in East Africa

  1. 1. Note that because the peripheral actors were a totally private colonial organization in this case, the argument that unauthorized peripheral expansion is a principal-agent problem does not apply, since there is no real delegation of authority in this case.
  2. 2. Rich 1992, 188–190. For an interesting take on Bismarck’s foreign policy, see Rathbun 2018.
  3. 3. W. Smith 1978, 41.
  4. 4. W. Smith 1978, 25–27; Perras 2004, 34–35.
  5. 5. Meritt 1978, 98; Perras 2004, 38.
  6. 6. Wesseling 1996, 140; Perras 2004, 10, 31, 36–37, 51, 91.
  7. 7. On Peters’s unsuccessful proposals, see Meritt 1978, 98–99; Peters 2001, 15; Perras 2004, 35–36, 48, 51–52.
  8. 8. Meritt 1978, 99.
  9. 9. Peters would later claim that he was given “confidential hints” that the government was behind him, and some scholars have echoed these claims, arguing he was given a “tentative go-ahead” by the government (see W. Smith 1978, 32; Townsend 1930, 132). But a careful examination of the evidence indicates this was not the case. Peters, it turned out, likely overinterpreted some oblique statements made by a retired government official who was in no way authorized to speak for the government. See Meritt 1978, 100n13.
  10. 10. Wesseling 1996, 141; Pakenham 2003, 290; Perras 2004, 51–52.
  11. 11. Meritt 1978, 100; Wesseling 1996, 141; Pakenham 2003, 284, 290; Perras 2004, 51–52, 55.
  12. 12. Peters 2001, 15.
  13. 13. Wehler 1970, 129.
  14. 14. Note that the German acquisition of both South-West Africa and Togoland were also cases of inadvertent expansion. See Esterhuyse 1968, 47–48; Knoll 1976, 20, 22, 23, 171n26.
  15. 15. Townsend 1930, 132; Freeman-Grenville 1963, 435; Henderson 1965, 125; Meritt 1978, 102–103; W. Smith 1978, 32; Wesseling 1996, 141; Peters 2001, 18–19; Pakenham 2003, 291; Chamberlain 2010, 63.
  16. 16. Wesseling 1996, 141; Pakenham 2003, 290; Perras 2004, 56.
  17. 17. Wesseling 1996, 141; Perras 2004, 56.
  18. 18. Perras 2004, 57.
  19. 19. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 435; Meritt 1978, 104; Wesseling 1996, 141–142; Pakenham 2003, 284; Perras 2004, 1, 57–59.
  20. 20. Peters 2001, 17, 23–24; Wesseling 1996, 141–142; Pakenham 2003, 291; Perras 2004, 57–58.
  21. 21. Meritt 1978, 97; Wesseling 1996, 142; Perras 2004, 1.
  22. 22. Wesseling 1996, 142; Peters 2001, 27–29, 31; Pakenham 2003, 291; Perras 2004, 1, 61–62.
  23. 23. Peters 2001, 31.
  24. 24. Perras 2004, 63n190.
  25. 25. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 436; Wesseling 1996, 142.
  26. 26. Meritt 1978, 104; Pakenham 2003, 292.
  27. 27. Meritt 1978, 105; Perras 2004, 63n191.
  28. 28. Meritt 1978, 109.
  29. 29. Meritt 1978, 104; W. Smith 1978, 33; Pakenham 2003, 292; Perras 2004, 64.
  30. 30. W. Smith 1978, 29–30; Perras 2004, 8, 66; J. Barnhart 2020, 126.
  31. 31. P. Kennedy 1980, 169–173; Perras 2004, 42–46.
  32. 32. Strandmann 1969, 140.
  33. 33. Meritt 1978, 112–113.
  34. 34. P. Kennedy 1980, 173, 176–177, 180–181; Lowe 1994, 85–87, 96–99; Perras 2004, 43, 100.
  35. 35. P. Kennedy 1980, 180–181.
  36. 36. Lowe 1994, 99.
  37. 37. P. Kennedy 1980, 181; Pakenham 2003, 292.
  38. 38. Perras 2004, 66.
  39. 39. Some scholars have argued that Bismarck had “misgivings” and was “reluctant” in accepting East Africa and that the territory was “unwanted” (see Townsend 1930, 133; W. Smith 1978, 32–33, 36–37, 91; S. Press 2017, 217). But Bismarck asked few questions about the territory itself and came to his decision very quickly. See Meritt 1978, 106; Wesseling 1996, 142; Perras 2004, 64–65.
  40. 40. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 436; Peters 2001, 35–36.
  41. 41. Meritt 1978, 97.
  42. 42. Perras 2004, 105.
  43. 43. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 436, 442; Peters 2001, 40; Pakenham 2003, 292–293; Perras 2004, 105.
  44. 44. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 437; Henderson 1965, 126; Pakenham 2003, 293; Perras 2004, 102–103.
  45. 45. Pakenham 2003, 296; Chamberlain 2010, 64.
  46. 46. Wesseling 1996, 145; Perras 2004, 112.
  47. 47. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 437; Henderson 1965, 126.
  48. 48. Wesseling 1996, 149; Pakenham 2003, 312, 344.
  49. 49. W. Smith 1978, 35, 76; Wesseling 1996, 146.
  50. 50. Perras 2004, 113.
  51. 51. Wituland itself had also been acquired by inadvertent expansion. See Townsend 1930, 131.
  52. 52. Rich 1992, 246–247; Pakenham 2003, 350.
  53. 53. W. Smith 1978, 73; Perras 2004, 68–80, 113.
  54. 54. Peters 2001, 22–23, 28–29.
  55. 55. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 444; W. Smith 1978, 75; Reuss 1981; Pakenham 2003, 624–625; Perras 2004, 115–116, 118.
  56. 56. Perras 2004, 125–126.
  57. 57. Collins 1967, 124; Louis 1967, 15; Wesseling 1996, 149.
  58. 58. Sanderson 1965, 29; Pakenham 2003, 310; Perras 2004, 132.
  59. 59. Langer 1960, 112.
  60. 60. Collins 1967, 124.
  61. 61. Langer 1960, 112–113; Sanderson 1965, 33–35; Collins 1967, 126–128; Wesseling 1996, 150–151. For an overview of the British expedition, see Pakenham 2003, 316–335.
  62. 62. Sanderson 1965, 44; Wesseling 1996, 153; Pakenham 2003, 344; Perras 2004, 134.
  63. 63. Peters 1891a, 113.
  64. 64. Langer 1960, 116.
  65. 65. Townsend 1930, 136; Sanderson 1965, 44; Collins 1967, 129–130; W. Smith 1978, 75; Perras 2004, 133, 135.
  66. 66. Perras 2004, 137.
  67. 67. Perras 2004, 136.
  68. 68. Perras 2004, 137.
  69. 69. Perras 2004, 137.
  70. 70. Peters 1891b, 6; see also 2001, 64.
  71. 71. W. Smith 1978, 77–78; Wesseling 1996, 146–148; Pakenham 2003, 346–349.
  72. 72. Freeman-Grenville 1963, 439; Henderson 1965, 128; Louis 1967, 13.
  73. 73. Perras 2004, 143–144.
  74. 74. Ritchie 1940, 144; Gillard 1960, 639; Louis 1967, 13; P. Kennedy 1980, 201.
  75. 75. Perras 2004, 139.
  76. 76. Perras 2004, 140.
  77. 77. Perras 2004, 140, 143.
  78. 78. Huurdeman 2003, 137; Bill Glover, “Cable Timeline: 1850–2018,” History of the Atlantic Cable and Undersea Communications, 2022, available at https://atlantic-cable.com/Cables/CableTimeLine/index.htm.
  79. 79. Peters 1891b, 29.
  80. 80. Peters 1891b, 18.
  81. 81. Peters 1891b, 23; Perras 2004, 144–145.
  82. 82. Peters 1891b, 27; 2001, 64.
  83. 83. Peters 1891b, 26–27; 2001, 64; Pakenham 2003, 351; Perras 2004, 144–145.
  84. 84. Peters 1891b, 32.
  85. 85. Pakenham 2003, 351.
  86. 86. Peters 1891b, 28; 2001, 64.
  87. 87. Peters 1891b, 29.
  88. 88. Peters 1891b, 28; Perras 2004, 145; Pakenham 2003, 352.
  89. 89. Peters 1891b, 32.
  90. 90. Sanderson 1965, 45; Collins 1967, 132; Peters 2001, 64; Perras 2004, 146, 148.
  91. 91. Peters 1891b, 39; Perras 2004, 147.
  92. 92. Peters 1891a, 113; Perras 2004, 144, 147–148.
  93. 93. Peters 1891b, 28–29; Pakenham 2003, 352; Perras 2004, 145.
  94. 94. Peters 1891b, 77.
  95. 95. Peters 1891a, 114; Pakenham 2003, 352; Perras 2004, 153–154.
  96. 96. See, for instance, Peters 1891a, 116–121; Pakenham 2003, 352–353; Perras 2004, 154–160, 167.
  97. 97. Perras 2004, 160.
  98. 98. Peters 1891b, 114.
  99. 99. Peters 1891a, 123; 1891b, 360; Wesseling 1996, 153; Pakenham 2003, 353; Perras 2004, 160–161.
  100. 100. Peters 1891b, 362; Wesseling 1996, 153; Pakenham 2003, 353; Perras 2004, 161.
  101. 101. Peters 1891b, 379–390, 585–586; Perras 2004, 165–166. This treaty has been widely misidentified as a protectorate in the historical literature, such as in Townsend 1930, 137; Langer 1960, 116; Henderson 1965, 130; Wesseling 1996, 149, 153; Pakenham 2003, 356.
  102. 102. Perras 2004, 166.
  103. 103. Distance estimated using the “Measure Distance” tool in Google Maps, 2023, available at https://www.google.com/maps, as well as “Map of the German Emin Pasha Expedition,” in Peters 1891b.
  104. 104. See Peters 1891b, 133–136, 145–146, 272–275, 309–310, 481–482, 486, 512–513, 530–531, as well as the accompanying “Map of the German Emin Pasha Expedition.”
  105. 105. Langer 1960, 119; Sanderson 1965, 53.
  106. 106. W. Smith 1978, 76; P. Kennedy 1980, 202–203; Perras 2004, 152.
  107. 107. Sanderson 1965, 57–58.
  108. 108. Sanderson 1965, 45–46, 49.
  109. 109. Perras 2004, 150.
  110. 110. Perras 2004, 141.
  111. 111. Perras 2004, 149–150.
  112. 112. Gillard 1960, 633; Sanderson 1963, 57; 1965, 44.
  113. 113. P. Kennedy 1980, 200.
  114. 114. Sanderson 1965, 47. See also Townsend 1930, 115, 138; Wesseling 1996, 145, 159.
  115. 115. P. Kennedy 1980, 201.
  116. 116. P. Kennedy 1980, 201.
  117. 117. Sanderson 1965, 47; P. Kennedy 1980, 190–191, 196–197; Pakenham 2003, 350.
  118. 118. Langer 1960, 103–106, 108; Sanderson 1965, 42; Collins 1967, 121, 128–129, 139; Louis 1967, 15; P. Kennedy 1980, 200; Wesseling 1996, 153, 156, 158.
  119. 119. Townsend 1930, 114; Sanderson 1965, 42; Collins 1967, 120–121; Louis 1967, 16; Wesseling 1996, 153, 156, 158.
  120. 120. Louis 1967, 16–17; Wesseling 1996, 145; Pakenham 2003, 344.
  121. 121. Sanderson 1965, 44–45.
  122. 122. P. Kennedy 1980, 202.
  123. 123. Collins 1967, 123.
  124. 124. Perras 2004, 139.
  125. 125. Sanderson 1965, 45.
  126. 126. Collins 1967, 131. See also Sanderson 1963, 52; 1965, 45, 50; Pakenham 2003, 354.
  127. 127. Perras 2004, 151. See also Townsend 1930, 115, 123, 138; Wesseling 1996, 159.
  128. 128. Pakenham 2003, 349–350.
  129. 129. Sanderson 1965, 53; Collins 1967, 133; Wesseling 1996, 158; Pakenham 2003, 355; Chamberlain 2010, 65.
  130. 130. Louis 1967, 17. See also Sanderson 1963, 52–53; 1965, 53; Collins 1967, 133; P. Kennedy 1980, 195, 204.
  131. 131. Collins 1967, 133–134.
  132. 132. Louis 1967, 17.
  133. 133. Sanderson 1965, 58.
  134. 134. Gillard 1960, 647–648.
  135. 135. Sanderson 1965, 54.
  136. 136. Gillard 1960, 649; Collins 1967, 150.
  137. 137. Langer 1960, 119; Henderson 1965, 131; Collins 1967, 150; P. Kennedy 1980, 205–206; Perras 2004, 168.
  138. 138. Wesseling 1996, 159; Perras 2004, 168; Chamberlain 2010, 65.
  139. 139. Townsend 1930, 141; Freeman-Grenville 1963, 440–441; Henderson 1965, 131–132; W. Smith 1978, 78; Perras 2004, 127.
  140. 140. Wesseling 1996, 159.
  141. 141. Peters 1891b, 557; Henderson 1965, 131; Perras 2004, 168.
  142. 142. Perras 2004, 172.
  143. 143. Peters 1891b, 559.
  144. 144. Perras 2004, 171–173.
  145. 145. W. Smith 1978, 76–77; Perras 2004, 174.
  146. 146. The quote is from Rich 1992, 235. For classic works in the debate over Bismarck’s colonial strategy, see Strandmann 1969; Taylor 1970; Wehler 1970.
  147. 147. Rich 1992, 247.

Conclusion

  1. 1. See White 2021.
  2. 2. Zacher 2001; Fazal 2007, chap. 7; Goertz, Diehl, and Balas 2016, chap. 5.
  3. 3. Territorial Change Data (v5.0). Tir et al. 1998.
  4. 4. Altman 2020; see also 2017.
  5. 5. Van Evera 1998, 33–34; Lieber 2000, 97–98; K. Adams 2004, 49–50.
  6. 6. Brooks 1999.
  7. 7. Zacher 2001; Fazal 2007, 44–54.
  8. 8. Hathaway and Shapiro 2017, chap. 13.
  9. 9. Altman and Lee 2022.
  10. 10. Adebajo 2002, 46; Amusan 2013, 272.
  11. 11. Brown 1987, 11–16.
  12. 12. Herz and Nogueira 2002, 45–46; Mares and Palmer 2012, 78.
  13. 13. Marten 2019.
  14. 14. Christoph Reuter, “The Truth about the Russian Deaths in Syria,” Der Spiegel International, March 2, 2018, available at https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/american-fury-the-truth-about-the-russian-deaths-in-syria-a-1196074.html; Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “How a 4-Hour Battle between Russian Mercenaries and US Commandos Unfolded in Syria,” New York Times, May 24, 2018, available at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html.
  15. 15. C. Kennedy and Erickson 2017.
  16. 16. Though, see Neil Hauer, “Russia’s Mercenary Debacle in Syria: Is the Kremlin Losing Control?” Foreign Affairs, February 26, 2018, available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2018-02-26/russias-mercenary-debacle-syria.
  17. 17. Ellen Nakashima, Karen DeYoung, and Liz Sly, “Putin Ally Said to Be in Touch with Kremlin, Assad before His Mercenaries Attacked US Troops,” Washington Post, February 22, 2018, available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/putin-ally-said-to-be-in-touch-with-kremlin-assad-before-his-mercenaries-attacked-us-troops/2018/02/22/f4ef050c-1781-11e8-8b08-027a6ccb38eb_story.html.
  18. 18. For research on autocratic “audience costs,” see J. Weeks 2008; Weiss 2013.
  19. 19. Arutunyan 2022, 103–127; Galeotti 2022, 181–184.
  20. 20. Emphasis in original. Galeotti 2022, 180.
  21. 21. Emphasis in original. Arutunyan 2022, 105.
  22. 22. Anna Doglov, “Russia’s Igor Strelkov: I Am Responsible for War in Eastern Ukraine,” Moscow Times, November 21, 2014, available at https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/11/21/russias-igor-strelkov-i-am-responsible-for-war-in-eastern-ukraine-a41598.
  23. 23. Arutunyan 2022, 129–145.
  24. 24. Arutunyan 2022, 140. See also Galeotti 2022, 182.
  25. 25. Arutunyan 2022, 169; Galeotti 2022, 188.
  26. 26. “Conflict Related Civilian Casualties in Ukraine,” United Nations, Ukraine, January 30, 2022, available at https://ukraine.un.org/en/168060-conflict-related-civilian-casualties-ukraine.
  27. 27. Keck and Sikkink 1998, 213.
  28. 28. Grynaviski 2018, 3.
  29. 29. Lake and Powell 1999, 6–7.
  30. 30. Richard Betts 2000, 46. See also Edelstein and Krebs 2015.
  31. 31. Mintzberg and Waters 1985. See also Popescu 2018.
  32. 32. Waltz 2010, 118.
  33. 33. Glaser 2010, 31.
  34. 34. See, for instance, Posen’s (1984) discussion of how leaders and militaries become more cohesive when facing acute external threats. For an important critique of related ideas, see Myrick 2021.
  35. 35. Jervis 1976, 319; see also 1968, 475–476.
  36. 36. “Remarks by President Biden on Russia’s Unprovoked and Unjustified Attack on Ukraine,” White House, February 24, 2022, available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/24/remarks-by-president-biden-on-russias-unprovoked-and-unjustified-attack-on-ukraine/.
  37. 37. Robin Wright, “Trump Drops the Mother of All Bombs on Afghanistan,” New Yorker, April 14, 2017, available at https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump-drops-the-mother-of-all-bombs-on-afghanistan; “Xi Jinping’s Zero-Covid Policy Has Turned a Health Crisis into a Political One,” The Economist, December 1, 2022, available at https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/12/01/xi-jinpings-zero-covid-policy-has-turned-a-health-crisis-into-a-political-one.

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